Sensitivity analysis of a branching process evolving on a network with application in epidemiology
Abstract
We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the network. We then apply our results to the early stages of an influenza-like epidemic spreading among a set of cities connected by air routes in the United States. We also consider vaccination and analyze the sensitivity of the total size of the epidemic with respect to the fraction of vaccinated people. Our analysis shows that the epidemic growth is more sensitive with respect to transmission rates within cities than travel rates between cities. More generally, we highlight the fact that branching processes offer a powerful stochastic modeling tool with analytical formulas for sensitivity which are easy to use in practice.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1509.01860,
title = {Sensitivity analysis of a branching process evolving on a network with application in epidemiology},
author = {Sophie Hautphenne and Gautier Krings and Jean-Charles Delvenne and Vincent D. Blondel},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.01860},
year = {2015}
}
Comments
17 pages (30 with SI), Journal of Complex Networks, Feb 2015