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We consider the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg risk model with claim sizes that are mixtures of phase-type and subexponential variables. Exploiting a specific geometric compound representation, we propose control variate techniques to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Hansjörg Albrecher , Martin Bladt , Eleni Vatamidou

We prove a weak converse estimate for the simultaneous approximation by several forms of the Bernstein polynomials with integer coefficients. It is stated in terms of moduli of smoothness. In particular, it yields a big $O$-characterization…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2020-09-17 Borislav R. Draganov

We consider a reflected process in the positive orthant driven by an exogenous jump process. For a given input process, we show that there exists a unique minimal strong solution to the given particle system up until a certain maximal…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Graeme Baker , Ankita Chatterjee

We examine hitting probability problems for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes and Geometric Brownian motions (GBM) with respect to exponential boundaries related to problems arising in risk theory and asset and liability models in pension…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-14 Efstathia Bougioukli , Michael A. Zazanis

Consider a multi-dimensional Brownian motion which models the surplus processes of multiple lines of business of an insurance company. Our main result gives exact asymptotics for the cumulative Parisian ruin probability as the initial…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Lanpeng Ji

This paper studies risk balancing features in an insurance market by evaluating ruin probabilities for single and multiple components of a multivariate compound Poisson risk process. The dependence of the components of the process is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Anita Behme , Claudia Klüppelberg , Gesine Reinert

We use asymptotic methods from the theory of differential equations to obtain an analytical expression for the survival probability of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a potential defined over a broad domain. We form a uniformly…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-26 L. T. Giorgini , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

Superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type (supOU) processes provide a rich class of stationary stochastic processes for which the marginal distribution and the dependence structure may be modeled independently. We show that they can also…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-14 Danijel Grahovac , Nikolai N. Leonenko , Murad S. Taqqu

This paper is a continuation of work arXiv:2006.09583 devoted to establishment of the convergence rate in the strong invariance principle for cumulative processes. We establish optimal rate of convergence for the case when regeneration…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-31 Elena Bashtova , Alexey Shashkin

We obtain error terms on the rate of convergence to Extreme Value Laws for a general class of weakly dependent stochastic processes. The dependence of the error terms on the `time' and `length' scales is very explicit. Specialising to data…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

We study large deviations for the time average of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process raised to an arbitrary power. We prove that beyond a critical value, large deviations are subexponential in time, with a non-convex rate function whose main…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Grégoire Ferré

In this paper, a finite-state mean-reverting model for the short-rate, based on the continuous time Ehrenfest process, will be examined. Two explicit pricing formulae for zero-coupon bonds will be derived in the general and the special…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-04-01 Alexander Kaplun

Active Ornstein-Uhlenbeck particles (AOUPs) are overdamped particles in an interaction potential subject to external Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noises. They can be transformed into a system of underdamped particles under additional velocity…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2019-08-14 L. L. Bonilla

We study the problem of minimizing the discounted probability of exponential Parisian ruin, that is, the discounted probability that an insurer's surplus exhibits an excursion below zero in excess of an exponentially distributed clock. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-07 Xiaoqing Liang , Virginia R. Young

Parameter estimation in diffusion processes from discrete observations up to a first-hitting time is clearly of practical relevance, but does not seem to have been studied so far. In neuroscience, many models for the membrane potential…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-06 Enrico Bibbona , Susanne Ditlevsen

A convergence theorem for the continuous weak approximation of the solution of stochastic differential equations by general one step methods is proved, which is an extension of a theorem due to Milstein. As an application, uniform second…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-03-19 Kristian Debrabant , Andreas Rößler

Consider a stationary, weakly dependent sequence of random variables. Given only mild conditions, allowing for polynomial decay of the autocovariance function, we show a Berry-Esseen bound of optimal order $n^{-1/2}$ for studentized…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-22 Moritz Jirak

We consider a transformed Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process model that can be a good candidate for modelling real-life processes characterized by a combination of time-reverting behaviour with heavy distribution tails. We begin with presenting the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-01 K. Borovkov , G. Decrouez

In this paper we develop a framework for estimating Probability of Default (PD) based on stochastic models governing an appropriate asset value processes. In particular, we build upon a L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and consider…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-25 Kyriakos Georgiou , Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos

Continuous time financial market models are often motivated as scaling limits of discrete time models. The objective of this paper is to establish such a connection for a robust framework. More specifically, we consider discrete time models…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-17 David Criens