Related papers: Weak Limits of Random Coefficient Autoregressive P…
We give an explicit representation for the transition law of a tempered stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and use it to develop a rejection sampling algorithm for exact simulation of increments from this process. Our results apply to…
Important models in insurance, for example the Carm{\'e}r--Lundberg theory and the Sparre Andersen model, essentially rely on the Poisson process. The process is used to model arrival times of insurance claims. This paper extends the…
This paper investigates the continuous-time limit of score-driven models with long memory. By extending score-driven models to incorporate infinite-lag structures with coefficients exhibiting heavy-tailed decay, we establish their weak…
In this paper, we prove convergence in distribution of Langevin processes in the overdamped asymptotics. The proof relies on the classical perturbed test function (or corrector) method, which is used both to show tightness in path space,…
We study the asymptotics of the ruin probability in the Cram\'er-Lundberg model with a modified notion of ruin. The modification is as follows. If the portfolio becomes negative, the asset is not immediately declared ruined but may survive…
We explicitly find the rate of exponential long-term convergence for the ruin probability in a level-dependent L\'evy-driven risk model, as time goes to infinity. Siegmund duality allows to reduce the pro blem to long-term convergence of a…
We give an introduction to a notion of weak dependence which is more general than mixing and allows to treat for example processes driven by discrete innovations as they appear with time series bootstrap. As a typical example, we analyze…
For a bivariate \Levy process $(\xi_t,\eta_t)_{t\ge 0}$ and initial value $V_0$ define the Generalised Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (GOU) process \[ V_t:=e^{\xi_t}\Big(V_0+\int_0^t e^{-\xi_{s-}}\ud \eta_s\Big),\quad t\ge0,\] and the associated…
We study the long time behavior of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process under the influence of a periodic drift. We prove that, under the standard diffusive rescaling, the law of the particle position converges weakly to the law of a Brownian…
In this paper, we consider a Banach space valued random coefficient autoregressive process. Our studies on this process involve existence, weak law of large numbers, strong law of large numbers, some exponential inequalities, central limit…
We formulate the insurance risk process in a general Levy process setting, and give general theorems for the ruin probability and the asymptotic distribution of the overshoot of the process above a high level, when the process drifts to…
We consider the extreme value statistics of correlated random variables that arise from a Langevin equation. Recently, it was shown that the extreme values of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process follow a different distribution than those…
For a risk process $R_u(t)=u+ct-X(t), t\ge 0$, where $u\ge 0$ is the initial capital, $c>0$ is the premium rate and $X(t),t\ge 0$ is an aggregate claim process, we investigate the probability of the Parisian ruin \[…
Researchers from different areas have independently defined extensions of the usual weak convergence of laws of stochastic processes with the goal of adequately accounting for the flow of information. Natural approaches are convergence of…
In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…
Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. X_n = a_1 X_{n-1} + ...+ a_p X_{n_p} + Y_n where the random variables Y_1, Y_2, ... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a…
We study the rough asymptotic behaviour of a general economic risk model in a discrete setting. Both financial and insurance risks are taken into account. Loss during the first $n$ years is modelled as a random variable…
We analyse the ruin probabilities for a renewal insurance risk process with inter-arrival time distributions depending on the claims that arrived within a fixed (past) time window. This dependence could be explained through a regenerative…
In this paper, we introduce an insurance ruin model with adaptive premium rate, thereafter refered to as restructuring/refraction, in which classical ruin and bankruptcy are distinguished. In this model, the premium rate is increased as…
A number of researchers have independently introduced topologies on the set of laws of stochastic processes that extend the usual weak topology. Depending on the respective scientific background this was motivated by applications and…