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We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…
This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…
In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…
We propose and investigate a hidden Markov model (HMM) for the analysis of dependent, aggregated, superimposed two-state signal recordings. A major motivation for this work is that often these signals cannot be observed individually but…
Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…
We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…
Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…
Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of…
We describe libhmm, a C++20 library for Hidden Markov Model parameter estimation, sequence decoding, and model selection. libhmm addresses two gaps in existing software: the absence of a well-maintained, zero-dependency C++ HMM library…
Many real-world dynamical systems can be described as State-Space Models (SSMs). In this formulation, each observation is emitted by a latent state, which follows first-order Markovian dynamics. A Probabilistic Deep SSM (ProDSSM)…
Blind System Identification (BSI) is used to extract a system model whenever input data is not attainable. Therefore, the input data and system model should be estimated simultaneously. Because of nonlinearities in a large number of…
Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics…
We propose a new scheme for selecting pool states for the embedded Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This new scheme allows the embedded HMM method to be used for efficient sampling in state space models…
The expansion of residential demand response programs and increased deployment of controllable loads will require accurate appliance-level load modeling and forecasting. This paper proposes a conditional hidden semi-Markov model to describe…
Product distribution matching (PDM) is proposed to generate target distributions over large alphabets by combining the output of several parallel distribution matchers (DMs) with smaller output alphabets. The parallel architecture of PDM…
Probabilistic Latent Variable Models (LVMs) provide an alternative to self-supervised learning approaches for linguistic representation learning from speech. LVMs admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation where the latent structure…
We consider a scenario where a power constrained transmitter delivers randomly arriving packets to the destination over Markov time-varying channel and adapts different transmission power to each channel state in order to guarantee…
In this work, we extend the idea of Quantum Markov chains [S. Gudder. Quantum Markov chains. J. Math. Phys., 49(7), 2008] in order to propose Quantum Hidden Markov Models (QHMMs). For that, we use the notions of Transition Operation…
In pursuit of explainability, we develop generative models for sequential data. The proposed models provide state-of-the-art classification results and robust performance for speech phone classification. We combine modern neural networks…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…