Related papers: Shifting attention to old age: Detecting mortality…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
In this paper, we suggest a novel method for detecting mortality deceleration. We focus on the gamma-Gompertz frailty model and suggest the subtraction of a penalty in the log-likelihood function as an alternative to traditional likelihood…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can…
In many countries life expectancy gains have been substantially higher than predicted by even recent forecasts. This is primarily due to increasing rates of improvement in old-age mortality not captured by existing models. In this paper we…
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…
Face-based age estimation has attracted enormous attention due to wide applications to public security surveillance, human-computer interaction, etc. With vigorous development of deep learning, age estimation based on deep neural network…
Datasets encountered when examining deeper issues in ecology and evolution are often complex. This calls for careful strategies for both model building, model selection, and model averaging. Our paper aims at motivating, exhibiting, and…
We seek to narrow the gap between parametric and nonparametric modelling of stationary time series processes. The approach is inspired by recent advances in focused inference and model selection techniques. The paper generalises and extends…
We have recently proposed a new information-based approach to model selection, the Frequentist Information Criterion (FIC), that reconciles information-based and frequentist inference. The purpose of this current paper is to provide a…
Claeskens and Hjort (2003) constructed the focused information criterion (FIC) and developed frequentist model averaging methods using maximum likelihood estimators assuming the observations to be independent and identically distributed.…
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic…
We wish to verify that the mortality deceleration (or decrease) is a consequence of the bending of the shape parameter at old ages. This investigation is based upon the Weon model (the Weibull model with an age-dependent shape parameter)…
This paper descibes a new method for deriving incidence rates of a chronic disease from prevalence data. It is based on a new ordinary differential equation, which relates the change in the age-specific prevalence to the agespecific…
A recent study in the 2017 Living to 100 Monograph published by the Society of Actuaries suggests, in contrast to previous research, that the risk of death after 110 increases with age. By fitting a Gompertz model to estimated central death…
This paper proposes a criterion for simultaneous GMM model and moment selection: the generalized focused information criterion (GFIC). Rather than attempting to identify the "true" specification, the GFIC chooses from a set of potentially…
Factorized information criterion (FIC) is a recently developed approximation technique for the marginal log-likelihood, which provides an automatic model selection framework for a few latent variable models (LVMs) with tractable inference…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…
In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…