Related papers: Shifting attention to old age: Detecting mortality…
ICU mortality scoring systems attempt to predict patient mortality using predictive models with various clinical predictors. Examples of such systems are APACHE, SAPS and MPM. However, most such scoring systems do not actively look for and…
Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…
People are living longer than ever before, and with this arises new complications and challenges for humanity. Among the most pressing of these challenges is of understanding the role of aging in the development of dementia. This paper is…
In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health…
We model voting behaviour in the multi-group setting of a two-tier voting system using sequences of de Finetti measures. Our model is defined by using the de Finetti representation of a probability measure (i.e. as a mixture of…
I present a simple numerical model based on iteratively updating subgroups of a population, individually modeled by nonnegative real numbers, by a constant decay factor; however, at each iteration, one group is selected to instead be…
Accurate patient mortality prediction enables effective risk stratification, leading to personalized treatment plans and improved patient outcomes. However, predicting mortality in healthcare remains a significant challenge, with existing…
We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…
A major challenge of climate change adaptation is to assess the effect of changing weather on human health. In spite of an increasing literature on the weather-related health subject, many aspect of the relationship are not known, limiting…
Lifespan distributions of populations of quite diverse species such as humans and yeast seem to surprisingly well follow the same empirical Gompertz-Makeham law, which basically predicts an exponential increase of mortality rate with age.…
Machine learning models that aim to predict dementia onset usually follow the classification methodology ignoring the time until an event happens. This study presents an alternative, using survival analysis within the context of machine…
We present some analytic results for the steady states of the Penna model of sen escence, generalised to allow genetically identical individuals to die at differ ent ages via an arbitrary survival function. Modelling this with a Fermi…
One of the most prevalent symptoms among the elderly population, dementia, can be detected by classifiers trained on linguistic features extracted from narrative transcripts. However, these linguistic features are impacted in a similar but…
Spatial regression models have a variety of applications in several fields ranging from economics to public health. Typically, it is of interest to select important exogenous predictors of the spatially autocorrelated response variable. In…
Using German forest health monitoring data we investigate the main drivers leading to tree mortality and the association between defoliation and mortality; in particular (a) whether defoliation is a proxy for other covariates (climate,…
The semiparametric linear hazard regression model introduced by McKeague and Sasieni (1994) is an extension of the linear hazard regression model developed by Aalen (1980). Methods of model selection for this type of model are still…
The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…
This paper estimates the stochastic process of how dementia incidence evolves over time. We proceed in two steps: first, we estimate a time trend for dementia using a multi-state Cox model. The multi-state model addresses problems of both…
We review recent progress on ancestral processes related to mutation-selection models, both in the deterministic and the stochastic setting. We mainly rely on two concepts, namely, the killed ancestral selection graph and the pruned…
Existing theories for the evolution of aging and death treat senescence as a side-effect of strong selection for fertility. These theories are well-developed mathematically, but fit poorly with emerging experimental data. The data suggest…