Related papers: Dynamic Contagion in a Banking System with Births …
We propose a model and an estimation technique to distinguish systemic risk and contagion in credit risk. The main idea is to assume, for a set of $d$ obligors, a set of $d$ idiosyncratic shocks and a shock that triggers the default of all…
We consider a structural default model in an interconnected banking network as in Lipton [International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 19(6), 2016], with mutual obligations between each pair of banks. We analyse the model…
Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic…
We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…
A system of interacting multiclass finite-state jump processes is analyzed. The model under consideration consists of a block-structured network with dynamically changing multi-colors nodes. The interaction is local and described through…
The global financial crisis in 2007-2009 demonstrated that systemic risk can spread all over the world through a complex web of financial linkages, yet we still lack fundamental knowledge about the evolution of the financial web. In…
We study binary state dynamics on a network where each node acts in response to the average state of its neighborhood. Allowing varying amounts of stochasticity in both the network and node responses, we find different outcomes in random…
This paper considers mutual obligations in the interconnected bank system and analyzes their influence on joint and marginal survival probabilities as well as CDS and FTD prices for the individual banks. To make the role of mutual…
Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit…
We study a simple, solvable model that allows us to investigate effects of credit contagion on the default probability of individual firms, in both portfolios of firms and on an economy wide scale. While the effect of interactions may be…
We study an optimal investment problem under contagion risk in a financial model subject to multiple jumps and defaults. The global market information is formulated as a progressive enlargement of a default-free Brownian filtration, and the…
Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be…
We study the critical behavior of a general contagion model where nodes are either active (e.g. with opinion A, or functioning) or inactive (e.g. with opinion B, or damaged). The transitions between these two states are determined by (i)…
We consider a dynamical model of distress propagation on complex networks, which we apply to the study of financial contagion in networks of banks connected to each other by direct exposures. The model that we consider is an extension of…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
This article extends the autoregressive count time series model class by allowing for a model with regimes, that is, some of the parameters in the model depend on the state of an unobserved Markov chain. We develop a quasi-maximum…
Groups of enterprises can serve as guarantees for one another and form complex networks when obtaining loans from commercial banks. During economic slowdowns, corporate default may spread like a virus and lead to large-scale defaults or…
An interbank market lets participants pool the risk arising from the combination of illiquid investments and random withdrawals by depositors. But it also creates the potential for one bank's failure to trigger off avalanches of further…
In a previous paper, we applied a field formalism to analyze capital allocation and accumulation within a microeconomic framework of investors and firms. The financial connections were modeled by a field of stakes, representing the links…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters…