Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model
Abstract
Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit portfolio. Applying a large deviation principle we compute the limiting distributions of the system and determine the time evolution of the credit quality indicators of the firms, deriving moreover the dynamics of a global financial health indicator. We finally describe a suitable version of the "Central Limit Theorem" useful to study large portfolio losses. Simulation results are provided as well as applications to portfolio loss distribution analysis.
Cite
@article{arxiv.0704.1348,
title = {Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model},
author = {Paolo Dai Pra and Wolfgang J. Runggaldier and Elena Sartori and Marco Tolotti},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0704.1348},
year = {2009}
}
Comments
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AAP544 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)