Related papers: Dynamic Contagion in a Banking System with Births …
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted…
Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that…
We study how changes in population size and fluctuating environmental conditions influence the establishment of seed banks in plants. Our model is a modification of the Wright-Fisher model with seed bank, introduced by Kaj, Krone and…
The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent…
Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in…
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the…
This paper is devoted the the study of the mean field limit for many-particle systems undergoing jump, drift or diffusion processes, as well as combinations of them. The main results are quantitative estimates on the decay of fluctuations…
We propose a simple model of the banking system incorporating a game feature where the evolution of monetary reserve is modeled as a system of coupled Feller diffusions. The Markov Nash equilibrium generated through minimizing the linear…
Can contagion be inferred from aggregated default data? We study this as a problem of identifiability, asking whether contagion generates components in default count distributions that remain distinct from those induced by macroeconomic…
We propose a simple model of inter-bank borrowing and lending where the evolution of the log-monetary reserves of $N$ banks is described by a system of diffusion processes coupled through their drifts in such a way that stability of the…
Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might…
We consider weakly interacting jump processes on time-varying random graphs with dynamically changing multi-color edges. The system consists of a large number of nodes in which the node dynamics depends on the joint empirical distribution…
How, and to what extent, does an interconnected financial system endogenously amplify external shocks? This paper attempts to reconcile some apparently different views emerged after the 2008 crisis regarding the nature and the relevance of…
As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and…
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with…
We consider the problem of governing systemic risk in an assets-liabilities dynamical model of banking system. In the model considered each bank is represented by its assets and its liabilities.The capital reserves of a bank are the…
We consider a model of financial contagion in a bipartite network of assets and banks recently introduced in the literature, and we study the effect of power law distributions of degree and balance-sheet size on the stability of the system.…
We study stochastic particle systems on a complete graph and derive effective mean-field rate equations in the limit of diverging system size, which are also known from cluster aggregation models. We establish the propagation of chaos under…
We study how the phenomenon of contagion can take place in the network of the world's stock exchanges due to the behavioral trait "blindeness to small changes". On large scale individual, the delay in the collective response may…
This paper introduces a novel framework to study default dependence and systemic risk in a financial network that evolves over time. We analyse several indicators of risk, and develop a new latent space model to assess the health of key…