Related papers: Predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle
The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…
We explore the cause of the solar cycle variabilities using a novel 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo model. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with…
The solar cycle is generated by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism which involves the induction and recycling of the toroidal and poloidal components of the Sun's magnetic field. Recent observations indicate that the Babcock-Leighton…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…
Polar fields at the minimum of a sunspot cycle -- which are a manifestation of the radial component of the Sun's poloidal field -- are deemed to be the best indicator of the strength of the toroidal component, and hence the amplitude of the…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…
The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…
Parameters of a special kind of \alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates evidence the presence of the Babcock-Leighton \alpha-effect on the Sun.…
We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…
We present the first global, three-dimensional simulations of solar/stellar convection that take into account the influence of magnetic flux emergence by means of the Babcock-Leighton (BL) mechanism. We have shown that the inclusion of a BL…
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…
The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\alpha\Omega$ dynamo wave…
A striking feature of the solar cycle is that at the beginning, sunspots appear around mid-latitudes, and over time the latitudes of emergences migrate towards the equator. The maximum level of activity varies from cycle to cycle. For…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects…