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Related papers: Predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle

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Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-10-20 Andrey G. Tlatov , Alexei A. Pevtsov

The Sun's surface field, especially the polar field, sets the boundary condition for the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields, but also provides us insight into the dynamo process. The evolution of the polar fields results from the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-07-05 Jie Jiang , Jinbin Cao

The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-11-30 Alexandre Lemerle , Paul Charbonneau , Arnaud Carignan-Dugas

The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-25 Akash Biswas

Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-07-18 L. L. Kitchatinov , A. V. Mordvinov , A. A. Nepomnyashchikh

It is well accepted that the solar cycle originates from a magnetohydrodynamics dynamo deep inside the Sun. Many dynamo models have long been proposed based on a lot of observational constraints. In this paper, using 342 NSO/Kitt Peak solar…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-06-23 W. B. Song

Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-02-16 Wei Guo , Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang

Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. G. Tlatov

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-07-26 Robert Cameron , Manfred Schüssler

The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-09 Scott W. McIntosh , Sandra C. Chapman , Robert J. Leamon , Ricky Egeland , Nicholas W. Watkins

Accurate prediction of the 11-year solar cycle remains a major challenge in solar physics and is important for space weather forecasting. A persistent property of the cycle is its asymmetry: the rise phase is usually much shorter than the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-18 Soumitra Hazra , Allan Sacha Brun , Laurene Jouve

We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-09-04 Ali Kilcik , Atila Ozguc

Sunspots are obvious observable manifestations of the toroidal magnetic field generated through the dynamo in the convection zone. They appear in different sizes, having a wide distribution in their area. We analyse the sunspot group area…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-10 Bidya Binay Karak , Soumya Mishra , Anu Sreedevi

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…

Astrophysics · Physics 2011-02-11 A. Kilcik , C. N. K. Anderson , J. P. Rozelot , H. Ye , G. Sugihara , A. Ozguc

Magnetohydrodynamic interactions between plasma flows and magnetic fields is fundamental to the origin and sustenance of the 11-year sunspot cycle. These processes are intrinsically three-dimensional (3D) in nature. Our goal is to construct…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-03-06 R. Kumar , L. Jouve , D. Nandy

In the previous study (Hiremath 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 K. M. Hiremath

We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle $11$--$24$ to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle $25$. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic…

The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-10-08 S. -S. Wu , G. Qin

Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-02 L. Jouve , C. P. Hung , A. S. Brun , S. Hazra , A. Fournier , O. Talagrand , B. Perri , A. Strugarek

We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 Jie Jiang , Robert H. Cameron , Dieter Schmitt , Manfred Schuessler