Related papers: Predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle
Theoretical models for the solar dynamo range from simple low-dimensional ``toy models'' to complex 3D-MHD simulations. Here we mainly discuss appproaches that are motivated and guided by solar (and stellar) observations. We give a brief…
The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that…
The data of sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and solar flare index during cycle 23 are analyzed to investigate the intermediate-term periodicities. Power spectral analysis has been performed separately for the data of the whole disk, northern…
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…
Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22-years. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11-year variation in number, modulates the amount of magnetic field that pierces the solar…
We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the…
Space-weather and disturbances in the heliosphere are manifestations of the solar magnetic field, which is solely driven by the interior dynamo, and constraining the solar interior magnetic field and its oscillatory behavior is one of the…
The appearance of dark sunspots over the solar photosphere is not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres. Among the different conclusions obtained by several authors, we can point out that the North-South…
One obvious feature of the solar cycle is its variation from one cycle to another. In this article, we review the dynamo models for the long-term variations of the solar cycle. By long-term variations, we mean the cycle modulations beyond…
After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of…
The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In…
The difference between individual solar cycles in the magnetic butterfly diagram can mostly be ascribed to the stochasticity of the emergence process. We aim to obtain the expectation value of the butterfly diagram from observations of four…
We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the open heliospheric flux from…
Long-term sunspot observations and solar activity reconstructions reveal that the Sun occasionally slips into quiescent phases known as solar grand minima, the dynamics during which is not well understood. We use a flux transport dynamo…
It has recently been discovered that the time phases (time-varying delays) of the irregular periodicities observed in the Sunspot series, consisting of the approximate 27-day latitude-averaged plasma rotation and approximate 11-yr magnetic…
An explanation is suggested for the north-south asymmetry of the polar magnetic field reversal in the current cycle of solar activity. The contribution of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the poloidal field generation is estimated using…
The solar meridional flow is an important ingredient in Babcock-Leighton type models of the solar dynamo. Global variations of this flow have been suggested to explain the variations in the amplitudes and lengths of the activity cycles.…
During the emergence of sunspot groups the footpoints of their leading and following parts move apart. This diverging motion results in the stretching of the active regions, which continues during the decay phase. The aim of the present…
Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to…
The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer…