Related papers: Predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle

Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observation, the quality of sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784--1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar…

The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…

Detailed study of the solar magnetic field is crucial to understand its generation, transport and reversals. The timing of the reversals may have implications on space weather and thus identification of the temporal behavior of the critical…

Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be…

Recently, we analyzed the combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2011 and studied variations in the annual numbers of small, large and big sunspot groups. Here that analysis…

Solar activity seems quite understandable when considered on the scales comparable with a solar cycle, i.e. about 11 years, and on a short time scale of about a year. A solar cycle looks basically (anti)symmetric with respect to the solar…

In this paper, we explore the evolution of sunspot latitude distribution and explore its relations with the cycle strength. With the progress of the solar cycle, the distributions in two hemispheres from mid-latitudes propagate toward the…

Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using…

We studied the relation between the distribution of sunspot groups and the Gleissberg cycle. As the magnetic field is related to the area of the sunspot groups, we used area-weighted sunspot group data. On the one hand, we confirm the…

The slopes of the linear relations between sunspot and white light (WL) facular areas at the onset of sunspot Cycles 12-21 correlate well with the amplitudes of those cycles between 1878-1980 (Brown and Evans, 1980). We use continuum images…

The paper presents the results of the analysis of the geometric characteristics of sunspots for the period of 19-24 cycles of activity. The shape of sunspots was studied on the basis of the method of normalization of images of sunspots to…

The mainstream dynamo models predict that the sunspot cycle is non-stationary and stochastic. The official Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts only the ongoing sunspot cycle because any forecast beyond one cycle is considered impossible.…

The long term study of the Sun is necessary if we are to determine the evolution of sunspot properties and thereby inform modeling of the solar dynamo, particularly on scales of a solar cycle. We aim to determine a number of sunspot…

Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…

In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time…

Observations show that faster-rotating stars tend to have stronger magnetic activity and shorter magnetic cycles. The cyclical magnetic activity of the Sun and stars is believed to be driven by the dynamo process. The success of the…

The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activity, the…

In 1844 Schwabe discovered that the number of sunspots increased and decreased over a period of about 11 years, that variation became known as the sunspot cycle. Almost eighty years later, Hale described the nature of the Sun's magnetic…

We find that the mean meridional motion of the spot groups varies considerably on a time scale of about 5-20 years. The maximum amplitude of the variation is about 10-15 m/s in both the Sun's northern and the southern hemispheres. Variation…

This review provides an introduction to the generation and evolution of the Sun's magnetic field, summarising both observational evidence and theoretical models. The eleven year solar cycle, which is well known from a variety of observed…