Related papers: Predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most…
Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval,…
The solar magnetic activity cycle has an amplitude that varies within a wide but limited range of values. This implies that there are nonlinear mechanisms that prevent runaway solutions. The purpose of this paper is to propose observable…
Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
The tilt angles of sunspot groups represent the poloidal field source in Babcock-Leighton-type models of the solar dynamo and are crucial for the build-up and reversals of the polar fields in Surface Flux Transport (SFT) simulations. The…
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…
Sunspots are the most important indicator of the magnetic activity on the solar surface during a cycle. Every sunspot group is formed and shaped by the magnetic field of the Sun. Hence, the magnetic field intensity shows itself as the size…