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We prove a large-deviation principle (LDP) for the sample paths of jump Markov processes in the small noise limit when, possibly, all the jump rates vanish uniformly, but slowly enough, in a region of the state space. We further discuss the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-26 Andrea Agazzi , Luisa Andreis , Robert I. A. Patterson , D. R. Michiel Renger

The pseudo-marginal algorithm is a variant of the Metropolis--Hastings algorithm which samples asymptotically from a probability distribution when it is only possible to estimate unbiasedly an unnormalized version of its density.…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-04 Sebastian M. Schmon , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Michael K. Pitt

We establish a large deviation principle for the normalized excursion and bridge of an $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process without negative jumps, with $1<\alpha<2$. Based on this, we derive precise asymptotics for the tail distributions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-05 Léo Dort , Christina Goldschmidt , Grégory Miermont

We consider birth-and-death processes of objects (animals) defined in ${\bf Z}^d$ having unit death rates and random birth rates. For animals with uniformly bounded diameter we establish conditions on the rate distribution under which the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Roberto Fernandez , Pablo A. Ferrari , Gustavo R. Guerberoff

Consider a discrete-time one-dimensional supercritical branching random walk. We study the probability that there exists an infinite ray in the branching random walk that always lies above the line of slope $\gamma-\epsilon$, where $\gamma$…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-16 Nina Gantert , Yueyun Hu , Zhan Shi

We consider a random walk in random environment with random holding times, that is, the random walk jumping to one of its nearest neighbors with some transition probability after a random holding time. Both the transition probabilities and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-30 Ryoki Fukushima , Naoki Kubota

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that a stochastic process $(Z_t)_{t \geq 0}$ does not exceed a constant barrier up to time $T$ (the so called survival probability) when Z is the composition of two independent processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-20 Christoph Baumgarten

Birth-death processes take place ubiquitously throughout the universe. In general, birth and death rates depend on the system size (corresponding to the number of products or customers undergoing the birth-death process) and thus vary every…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-07-19 Seong Jun Park , M. Y. Choi

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of individual-based models describing the evolution of a population structured by a real trait, subject to selection and mutation. We consider two different sets of assumptions: first,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Anouar Jeddi

We study the asymptotics of large, moderate and normal deviations for the connected components of the sparse random graph by the method of stochastic processes. We obtain the logarithmic asymptotics of large deviations of the joint…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anatolii A. Puhalskii

A $p$-jump process is a piecewise deterministic Markov process with jumps by a factor of $p$. We prove a limit theorem for such processes on the unit interval. Via duality with respect to probability generating functions, we deduce limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-02 F. Hermann , P. Pfaffelhuber

We consider integer-valued random walks with independent but not identically distributed increments, and extend to this context several classical estimates, including a local limit theorem, precise small-ball estimates (both conditional on…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Sébastien Ott , Yvan Velenik

We introduce and study a fractional variant of the linear birth-death process, namely, the generalized fractional linear birth-death process (GFLBDP) which is defined by taking the regularized Hilfer-Prabhakar derivative in the system of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-12 Manisha Dhillon , Pradeep Vishwakarma , Kuldeep Kumar Kataria

We introduce a general theory on stationary approximations for locally stationary continuous-time processes. Based on the stationary approximation, we use $\theta$-weak dependence to establish laws of large numbers and central limit type…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-01 Robert Stelzer , Bennet Ströh

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the survival probability of a multi-type branching processes in random environment. The class of processes we consider corresponds, in the one-dimensional situation, to the intermediately subcritical…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-01 Vladimir Vatutin , Elena Dyakonova

Let $\omega=(\omega_i)_{i\in\mathbb Z}=(\mu^{L}_i,...,\mu^{1}_i,\lambda_i)_{i\in \mathbb Z}$, which serves as the environment, be a sequence of i.i.d. random nonnegative vectors, with $L\ge1$ a positive integer. We study birth and death…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Hua-Ming Wang

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of Green functions associated to partially homogeneous random walks in the quadrant $Z_+^2$. There are four possible distributions for the jumps of these processes, depending on the location…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Irina Ignatiouk-Robert

This paper primarily investigates the geometric properties of excursions of L\'evy processes reflected at the past infimum with long lifetime or large height. For an oscillating process in the domain of attraction of a stable law, our…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Zhi-Hao Cui , Hao Wu , Wei Xu

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) offer a powerful stochastic modeling framework that combines deterministic trajectories with random perturbations at random times. Estimating their local characteristics (particularly the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Romain Azaïs , Solune Denis

We consider a subcritical branching process in an i.i.d. random environment, in which one immigrant arrives at each generation. We consider the event $% \mathcal{A}_{i}(n)$ that all individuals alive at time $n$ are offspring of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-09 E. E. Dyakonova , V. A. Vatutin