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For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameter is totally different in the stable, unstable, and explosive cases. Notwithstanding of this trichotomy, we investigate…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-28 Bernard Bercu , Laure Coutin , Nicolas Savy

We study tail behaviour of the distribution of the area under the positive excursion of a random walk which has negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. We determine the asymptotics for tail probabilities for the area.

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-03 Denis Denisov , Elena Perfilev , Vitali Wachtel

We derive logarithmic asymptotics of probabilities of small deviations for iterated processes in the space of trajectories. We find conditions under which these asymptotics coincide with those of processes generating iterated processes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-17 Andrei N. Frolov

In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

We study the large time behavior of the survival probability $\mathbb{P}_x\left(\tau_D>t\right)$ for symmetric jump processes in unbounded domains with a positive bottom of the spectrum. We prove asymptotic upper and lower bounds with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Phanuel Mariano , Jing Wang

In this article, we provide different representations for a time-fractional birth and death process $N_{\alpha}(t)$, whose transition probabilities are governed by a time-fractional system of differential equations. More specifically, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Jorge Littin

In this paper some general theory is presented for locally stationary processes based on the stationary approximation and the stationary derivative. Laws of large numbers, central limit theorems as well as deterministic and stochastic bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Rainer Dahlhaus , Stefan Richter , Wei Biao Wu

In this paper we propose a new method for approximating the nonstationary moment dynamics of one dimensional Markovian birth-death processes. By expanding the transition probabilities of the Markov process in terms of Poisson-Charlier…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-09-23 Stefan Engblom , Jamol Pender

We consider a stochastic individual-based population model with competition, trait-structure affecting reproduction and survival, and changing environment. The changes of traits are described by jump processes, and the dynamics can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-17 Benoît Henry , Sylvie Méléard , Viet Chi Tran

We consider the Markovian supermarket model with growing choices, where jobs arrive at rate $n\lambda_n$ and each of $n$ parallel servers processes jobs in its queue at rate $1$. Each incoming job joins the shortest among $d_n \in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Amarjit Budhiraja , Ruoyu Wu

We consider a random walk in random environment in the low disorder regime on $\mathbb Z^d$. That is, the probability that the random walk jumps from a site $x$ to a nearest neighboring site $x+e$ is given by $p(e)+\epsilon \xi(x,e)$, where…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-11 David Campos , Alejandro F. Ramirez

Many spatio-temporal data record the time of birth and death of individuals, along with their spatial trajectories during their lifetime, whether through continuous-time observations or discrete-time observations. Natural applications…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-14 Frédéric Lavancier , Ronan Le Guével

The dynamics of a population exhibiting exponential growth can be modelled as a birth-death process, which naturally captures the stochastic variation in population size over time. In this article, we consider a supercritical birth-death…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-07 Anastasia Ignatieva , Jotun Hein , Paul A. Jenkins

We propose a general framework for studying jump-diffusion systems driven by both Gaussian noise and a jump process with state-dependent intensity. Of particular natural interest are the jump locations: the system evaluated at the jump…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-09-28 Christopher E. Miles , James P. Keener

In this paper, we consider a one-dimensional jump-type Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process driven by a Brownian motion and a subordinator, whose growth rate is an unknown parameter. Considering the process observed continuously or discretely at high…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Mohamed Ben Alaya , Ahmed Kebaier , Gyula Pap , Ngoc Khue Tran

We derive an annealed large deviation principle for the normalised local times of a continuous-time random walk among random conductances in a finite domain in $\Z^d$ in the spirit of Donsker-Varadhan \cite{DV75}. We work in the interesting…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-11 Wolfgang König , Michele Salvi , Tilman Wolff

This article studies the quasi-stationary behaviour of multidimensional birth and death processes, modeling the interaction between several species, absorbed when one of the coordinates hits 0. We study models where the absorption rate is…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-14 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

The aim of this paper is to give an explicit formula of the invariant distribution of a quasi-birth-and-death process in terms of the block entries of the transition probability matrix using a matrix-valued orthogonal polynomials approach.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-19 Manuel D. de la Iglesia

We consider a branching stable process with positive jumps, i.e. a continuous-time branching process in which the particles evolve independently as stable L{\'e}vy processes with positive jumps. Assuming the branching mechanism is critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-13 Christophe Profeta

We establish the global asymptotic equivalence between a pure jumps L\'evy process $\{X_t\}$ on the time interval $[0,T]$ with unknown L\'evy measure $\nu$ belonging to a non-parametric class and the observation of $2m^2$ Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Pierre Étoré , Sana Louhichi , Ester Mariucci
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