Related papers: The local principle of large deviations for compou…
Different change-point type models encountered in statistical inference for stochastic processes give rise to different limiting likelihood ratio processes. In a previous paper of one of the authors it was established that one of these…
Define the scaled empirical point process on an independent and identically distributed sequence $\{Y_i: i\le n\}$ as the random point measure with masses at $a_n^{-1} Y_i$. For suitable $a_n$ we obtain the weak limit of these point…
We consider the almost semi-continuous processes defined on a finite Markov chain. The representation of the moment generating functions for the absolute maximum after achievement positive level and for the recovery time are obtained.…
The problem of disorder seeks to determine a stopping time which is as close as possible to the unknown time of ``disorder'' when the observed process changes its probability characteristics. We give a partial answer to this question for…
We study the large deviation principle (LDP) for locally damped nonlinear wave equations perturbed by a bounded noise. When the noise is sufficiently non-degenerate, we establish the LDP for empirical distributions with lower bound of a…
We develop a novel asymptotic theory for local polynomial extremum estimators of time-varying parameters in a broad class of nonlinear time series models. We show the proposed estimators are consistent and follow normal distributions in…
We study the evolution of the population size distribution of a critical Galton-Watson process with infinite variance of the offspring size of particles assuming that the population size is unusually small at the distant moment $n$ of…
We study a limit behavior of a sequence of Markov processes (or Markov chains) such that their distributions outside of any neighborhood of a "singular" point attract to some probability law. In any neighborhood of this point the behavior…
We recover the Donsker-Varadhan large deviations principle (LDP) for the empirical measure of a continuous time Markov chain on a countable (finite or infinite) state space from the joint LDP for the empirical measure and the empirical flow…
Recently, a marked Poisson process (MPP) model for life catastrophe risk was proposed in [6]. We provide a justification and further support for the model by considering more general Poisson point processes in the context of extreme value…
We consider a branching Markov process in continuous time in which the particles evolve independently as spectrally negative L\'evy processes. When the branching mechanism is critical or subcritical, the process will eventually die and we…
A model for the evolution of a large population interacting system is considered in which a marked Poisson processes influences their evolution, together with a Brownian motion. Mean field McKean-Vlasov limits of such system are formulated…
A simplified model for the growth of a population is studied in which random effects arise because reproducing individuals have a certain probability of surviving until the next breeding season and hence contributing to the next generation.…
We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…
We offer a new proof of the classical law of large numbers for a general class of branching Markov processes based on the asymptotic behaviour of the moments developed in \cite{bmoments, gonzalez2022erratum}. Moreover, we show that the law…
In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated…
We consider a discrete time semi-Markov process where the characteristics defining the process depend on a small perturbation parameter. It is assumed that the state space consists of one finite communicating class of states and, in…
Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) are a class of stochastic processes with applications in several fields of applied mathematics spanning from mathematical modeling of physical phenomena to computational methods. A PDMP is…
We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…
This article studies the quasi-stationary behaviour of population processes with unbounded absorption rate, including one-dimensional birth and death processes with catastrophes and multi-dimensional birth and death processes, modeling…