English

The disorder problem for compound Poisson processes with exponential jumps

Probability 2008-11-23 v1

Abstract

The problem of disorder seeks to determine a stopping time which is as close as possible to the unknown time of ``disorder'' when the observed process changes its probability characteristics. We give a partial answer to this question for some special cases of Levy processes and present a complete solution of the Bayesian and variational problem for a compound Poisson process with exponential jumps. The method of proof is based on reducing the Bayesian problem to an integro-differential free-boundary problem where, in some cases, the smooth-fit principle breaks down and is replaced by the principle of continuous fit.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.math/0503481,
  title  = {The disorder problem for compound Poisson processes with exponential jumps},
  author = {Pavel V. Gapeev},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0503481},
  year   = {2008}
}

Comments

Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051604000000981 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)