Related papers: The local principle of large deviations for compou…
The theory of stochastic approximations form the theoretical foundation for studying convergence properties of many popular recursive learning algorithms in statistics, machine learning and statistical physics. Large deviations for…
Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…
We propose a method for determining the most likely cause, in terms of conventional generator outages and renewable fluctuations, of power system frequency reaching a predetermined level that is deemed unacceptable to the system operator.…
A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a renewal Markov process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy tailed distributions.…
In this paper, we study a continuous-time discounted jump Markov decision process with both controlled actions and observations. The observation is only available for a discrete set of time instances. At each time of observation, one has to…
We consider stochastic growth models for populations organized in colonies and subject to uniform catastrophes. To assess population viability, we analyze scenarios in which individuals adopt dispersion strategies after catastrophic events.…
We consider a supercritical general branching population where the lifetimes of individuals are i.i.d. with arbitrary distribution and each individual gives birth to new individuals at Poisson times independently from each others. The…
A branching process in a Markovian environment consists of an irreducible Markov chain on a set of "environments" together with an offspring distribution for each environment. At each time step the chain transitions to a new random…
In this paper, we develop a general law of large numbers and central limit theorem for cumulative reward processes associated with finite state Markov jump processes with non-stationary transition rates. Such models commonly arise in…
In this paper, we consider a continuous-time Markov process and prove a local limit theorem for the integral of a time-inhomogeneous function of the process. One application is in the study of the fast-oscillating perturbations of linear…
We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…
We prove a maximal-type large deviation principle for dynamical systems with arbitrarily slow polynomial mixing rates. Also several applications, particularly to billiard systems, are presented.
We consider a family of continuous time symmetric random walks indexed by $k\in \mathbb{N}$, $\{X_k(t),\,t\geq 0\}$. For each $k\in \mathbb{N}$ the matching random walk take values in the finite set of states…
We consider a risk model with a counting process whose intensity is a Markovian shot-noise process, to resolve one of the disadvantages of the Cram\'er-Lundberg model, namely the constant jump intensity of the Poisson process. Due to this…
The aim of this paper is to get asymptotic deviation bounds via a Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for cumulative processes also known as compound renewal processes or renewal-reward processes. These processes cumulate independent random…
We investigate piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP), where the deterministic dynamics follows a scalar conservation law and random jumps in the system are characterized by changes in the flux function. We show under which…
This article presents a biological neural network model driven by inhomogeneous Poisson processes accounting for the intrinsic randomness of synapses. The main novelty is the introduction of local interactions: each firing neuron triggers…
Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…
We present limit theorems for a sequence of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) taking values in a separable Hilbert space. This class of processes provides a rigorous framework for stochastic spatial models in which discrete…
Shot noise processes are used in applied probability to model a variety of physical systems in, for example, teletraffic theory, insurance and risk theory and in the engineering sciences. In this work we prove a large deviation principle…