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Networked SIR models have become essential workhorses in the modeling of epidemics, their inception, propagation and control. Here, and building on this venerable tradition, we report on the emergence of a remarkable self-organization of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-16 Sara Najem , Leonid Klushin , Jihad Touma

We present a class of SEIR Markov chain models for infectious diseases observed over discrete time in a random human population living in a closed environment. The population changes over time through random births, deaths, and transitions…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-30 Divine Wanduku , Chinmoy Rahul

The SIR model is one of the most prototypical compartmental models in epidemiology. Generalizing this ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework into a spatially distributed partial differential equation (PDE) model is a considerable…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-07-11 Su Yang , Weiqi Chu , Panayotis Kevrekidis

Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Son Luu , Edward Susko , Lam Si Tung Ho

Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-03 Romain Guy , Catherine Larédo , Elisabeta Vergu

We study the class of SIS epidemics on temporal networks and propose a new activity-driven and adaptive epidemic model that captures the impact of asymptomatic and infectious individuals in the network. In the proposed model, referred to as…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-04 Ashish R. Hota , Kavish Gupta

We consider an epidemic model of SIR type set on a homogeneous tree and investigate the spreading properties of the epidemic as a function of the degree of the tree, the intrinsic basic reproduction number and the strength of the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Christophe Besse , Grégory Faye

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Steven P. Lalley

We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a regular random graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-04-06 Takehisa Hasegawa , Koji Nemoto

Various theoretical models have been proposed to understand the basic nature of epidemics. Recent studies focus on the effects of mobility to epidemic process. However, uncorrelated random walk is typically assumed as the type of movement.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-04 Genki Ichinose , Yoshiki Satotani , Hiroki Sayama , Takashi Nagatani

Many complex networks exhibit vulnerability to spreading of epidemics, and such vulnerability relates to the viral strain as well as to the network characteristics. For instance, the structure of the network plays an important role in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-14 Mina Youssef , Caterina Scoglio

We study the spread of discrete-time epidemics over arbitrary networks for well-known propagation models, namely SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible), SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered), SIRS (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible)…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-10-03 Navid Azizan Ruhi , Hyoung Jun Ahn , Babak Hassibi

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-19 Christian Gourieroux , Joann Jasiak

We analyze a Markovian SIR epidemic model where individuals either recover naturally or are diagnosed, leading to isolation and potential contact tracing. Our focus is on digital contact tracing via a tracing app, considering both its…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Tom Britton , Dongni Zhang

We study a coupled epidemic-mobility model in which, at each time, individuals move in a network of spatially-distributed regions (sub-populations) according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) and subsequently interact with the local…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-30 Vishal Abhishek , Vaibhav Srivastava

Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-03 A. H. González , A. L. Anderson , A. Ferramosca , E. A. Hernandez-Vargas

Interaction patterns among individuals play vital roles in spreading infectious diseases. Understanding these patterns and integrating their impact in modeling diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases are important for epidemiological…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-04-02 Md Shahzamal , Raja Jurdak , Bernard Mans , Ahmad El Shoghri , Frank De Hoog

We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-20 C. Lagorio , M. Dickison , F. Vazquez , L. A. Braunstein , P. A. Macri , M. V. Migueles , S. Havlin , H. E. Stanley

We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity pattern. In SIR-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Vittoria Colizza , Alessandro Vespignani

We present simulation results for the contact process on regular, cubic networks that are composed of a one-dimensional lattice and a set of long edges with unbounded length. Networks with different sets of long edges are considered, that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 R. Juhász , G. Ódor
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