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We present an adaptive smoother for linear state-space models with unknown process and measurement noise covariances. The proposed method utilizes the variational Bayes technique to perform approximate inference. The resulting smoother is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Tohid Ardeshiri , Emre Özkan , Umut Orguner , Fredrik Gustafsson

Regression spline is a useful tool in nonparametric regression. However, finding the optimal knot locations is a known difficult problem. In this article, we introduce the Non-concave Penalized Regression Spline. This proposal method not…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-11 Heng Peng

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-30 Jize Zhang , Lizhen Lin

Bayesian optimisation is an adaptive sampling strategy for constructing a Gaussian process surrogate to efficiently search for the global minimum of a black-box computational model. Gaussian processes have limited applicability in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-04 Thomas A. Archbold , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Fehmi Cirak

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

We study the deterministic global optimization of trained Gaussian process posterior mean functions over hyperrectangular domains. Although the posterior mean function has a compact closed-form representation, its global optimization is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Wei-Ting Tang , Akshay Kudva , Calvin Tsay , Joel A. Paulson

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Kolyan Ray , Aad van der Vaart

Parametric verification of linear temporal properties for stochastic models can be expressed as computing the satisfaction probability of a certain property as a function of the parameters of the model. Smoothed model checking (smMC) aims…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Luca Bortolussi , Francesca Cairoli , Ginevra Carbone , Paolo Pulcini

Stein's method for Gaussian process approximation can be used to bound the differences between the expectations of smooth functionals $h$ of a c\`adl\`ag random process $X$ of interest and the expectations of the same functionals of a well…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-15 A. D. Barbour , Nathan Ross , Guangqu Zheng

Image acquisition and segmentation are likely to introduce noise. Further image processing such as image registration and parameterization can introduce additional noise. It is thus imperative to reduce noise measurements and boost signal.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Moo K. Chung

The k-means method is one of the most widely used clustering algorithms, drawing its popularity from its speed in practice. Recently, however, it was shown to have exponential worst-case running time. In order to close the gap between…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2009-08-07 David Arthur , Bodo Manthey , Heiko Röglin

We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-10-25 Cedric Archambeau , Francis Bach

The extended definition of the polynomial B-splines may give a chance to improve the results obtained by the classical cubic polynomial B-splines. Determination of the optimum value of the extension parameter can be achieved by scanning…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-02-10 Ozlem Ersoy Hepson , Alper Korkmaz , Idris Dag

We propose an alternative approach towards cost mitigation in volatility-managed portfolios based on smoothing the predictive density of an otherwise standard stochastic volatility model. Specifically, we develop a novel variational Bayes…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-15 Mauro Bernardi , Daniele Bianchi , Nicolas Bianco

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Paulo Orenstein

The Bayesian smoothing equations are generally intractable for systems described by nonlinear stochastic differential equations and discrete-time measurements. Gaussian approximations are a computationally efficient way to approximate the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Juha Ala-Luhtala , Simo Särkkä , Robert Piché

In this paper, a method is proposed to solve the problem of monotone smoothing splines using general linear systems. This problem, also called monotone control theoretic splines, has been solved only when the curve generator is modeled by…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2013-08-08 Masaaki Nagahara , Clyde F. Martin

We show how to extract the implicit copula of a response vector from a Bayesian regularized regression smoother with Gaussian disturbances. The copula can be used to compare smoothers that employ different shrinkage priors and function…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-30 Nadja Klein , Michael Stanley Smith

We consider a Bayesian method for simultaneous quantile regression on a real variable. By monotone transformation, we can make both the response variable and the predictor variable take values in the unit interval. A representation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-08 Priyam Das , Subhashis Ghoshal