Related papers: Extreme Events: Mechanisms and Prediction

We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…

Spatiotemporal complexity is induced in a two dimensional nonlinear disordered lattice through the modulational instability of an initially weakly perturbed excitation. In the course of evolution we observe the formation of transient as…

Extreme weather events have an enormous impact on society and are expected to become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this context, resilience planning becomes crucial for risk mitigation and coping with these extreme…

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…

Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large scale networks and biological systems. Here, we propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger…

This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…

Chaotic systems arise naturally in Statistical Mechanics and in Fluid Dynamics. A paradigm for their modelization are smooth hyperbolic systems. Are there consequences that can be drawn simply by assuming that a system is hyperbolic? here…

Deep Learning has received increased attention due to its unbeatable success in many fields, such as computer vision, natural language processing, recommendation systems, and most recently in simulating multiphysics problems and predicting…

We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…

Population-level societal events, such as civil unrest and crime, often have a significant impact on our daily life. Forecasting such events is of great importance for decision-making and resource allocation. Event prediction has…

Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…

In this essay we give an overview on the problem of rogue or freak wave formation in the ocean. The matter of the phenomenon is a sporadic occurrence of unexpectedly high waves on the sea surface. These waves cause serious danger for…

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Recent results of numerical simulations of fully nonlinear evolutionary equations for long-crested deep-water waves are discussed, where formation of extreme waves was observed. Several examples demonstrate that three-dimensionality of the…

Extreme events are of great importance since they often represent impactive occurrences. For instance, in terms of climate and weather, extreme events might be major storms, floods, extreme heat or cold waves, and more. However, they are…

Ocean rogue waves are large and suddenly appearing surface gravity waves, which may cause severe damage to ships and other maritime structures. Despite years of research, the exact origin of rogue waves is still disputed. Linear…

Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality…

Events are occurrences in specific locations, time, and semantics that nontrivially impact either our society or the nature, such as civil unrest, system failures, and epidemics. It is highly desirable to be able to anticipate the…