Related papers: Extreme Events: Mechanisms and Prediction
This work addresses the data-driven forecasting of extreme events in the airfoil flow. These events may be seen as examples of the kind of unsteady and intermittent dynamics relevant to the flow around airfoils and wings in a variety of…
Since Galileo's time, the pendulum has evolved into one of the most exciting physical objects in mathematical modeling due to its vast range of applications for studying various oscillatory dynamics, including bifurcations and chaos, under…
This work studies the effectiveness of several machine learning techniques for predicting extreme events occurring in the flow around an airfoil at low Reynolds. For certain Reynolds numbers the aerodynamic forces exhibit intermittent…
Dynamical fluctuations or rare events associated with atypical trajectories in chaotic maps due to specific initial conditions can crucially determine their fate, as the may lead to stability islands or regions in phase space otherwise…
Instabilities and strong dynamical interactions between several giant planets have been proposed as a possible explanation for the surprising orbital properties of extrasolar planetary systems. In particular, dynamical instabilities would…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…
There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, urban crimes, nuclear reactions, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the…
From environmental sciences to finance, there is a growing demand for methods that can assess the risks of extreme events beyond those observed in available data. Extrapolating extreme events beyond the range of the data is not obvious.…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
Extreme wave events or rogue waves (RWs) are both statistically rare and of exceptionally large amplitude. They are observed in many complex systems ranging from oceanic and optical environments to financial models and Bose-Einstein…
Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…
Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…
Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This, in turn, is exacting a significant toll in communities worldwide. While prediction skills are increasing with advances in numerical weather…
Several environmental phenomena can be described by different correlated variables that must be considered jointly in order to be more representative of the nature of these phenomena. For such events, identification of extremes is…
We propose a novel approach to generate chaotic business cycles in a deterministic setting. Rather than producing chaos endogenously, we consider aggregate economic models with limit cycles and equilibriums, subject them to chaotic…
Tidal disruption events involve numerous physical processes (fluid dynamics, magnetohydrodynamics, radiation transport, self-gravity, general relativistic dynamics) in highly nonlinear ways, and, because TDEs are transients by definition,…
In [1] we present an extension of Prime Event Structures by a mechanism to express dynamicity in the causal relation. More precisely we add the possibility that the occurrence of an event can add or remove causal dependencies between events…