Related papers: Extreme Events: Mechanisms and Prediction

Initially this paper reviews the mathematical issues surrounding the hydrostatic (HPE) and non-hydrostatic (NPE) primitive equations that have been used extensively in numerical weather prediction and climate modelling. Cao and Titi (2005,…

Dynamical systems can be prone to severe fluctuations due to the presence of chaotic dynamics. This paper explains for a toy chaotic economic model how such a system can be regulated by the application of relatively weak control to keep the…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…

Cascades of events and extreme occurrences have garnered significant attention across diverse domains such as financial markets, seismology, and social physics. Such events can stem either from the internal dynamics inherent to the system…

We numerically show that extreme events induced by parameter mismatches or noise in coupled oscillatory systems can be anticipated and suppressed before they actually occur. We show this in a main system unidirectionally coupled to an…

We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset…

The emergence and evolution of real-world systems have been extensively studied in the last few years. However, equally important phenomena are related to the dynamics of systems' collapse, which has been less explored, especially when they…

Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…

Extreme events are characterised by low probabilities and high impact on the systems. As a consequence, it is possible to find many studies about the predictability and suppression of extreme events. In this work, we show the existence of…

We consider empirical multi-dimensional Rare Events Point Processes that keep track both of the time occurrence of extremal observations and of their severity, for stochastic processes arising from a dynamical system, by evaluating a given…

A natural phenomenon occurring in a living system is an outcome of the dynamics of the specific biological network underlying the phenomenon. The collective dynamics have both deterministic and stochastic components. The stochastic nature…

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

This chapter offers a principled approach to the prediction of chaotic systems from data. First, we introduce some concepts from dynamical systems' theory and chaos theory. Second, we introduce machine learning approaches for…

We argue that the transition to turbulence is controlled by large amplitude events that follow extreme distribution theory. The theory suggests an explanation for recent observations of the turbulent state lifetime which exhibit…

Due to the deterministic nature of chaotic systems, fluctuations in their trajectories arise solely from the choice of initial conditions. Some of these dynamical fluctuations may lead to extremely unlikely scenarios. Understanding the…

This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify the directional dependence of extreme events between two variables. The proposed approach is designed to capture asymmetric tail dependence by studying conditional tail expectations of…

Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…

Modern progress in artificial intelligence permits to realize algorithms of adaptation for critical events (in addition to ERP). A production emergence, an appearance of new competitive goods, a major change in financial state of partners,…

We study rare events in systems of diffusive fields driven out of equilibrium by the boundaries. We present a numerical technique and use it to calculate the probabilities of rare events in one and two dimensions. Using this technique, we…

Extreme events are often multivariate in nature. A compound extreme occurs when a combination of variables jointly produces a significant impact, even if individual components are not necessarily marginally extreme. Compound extremes have…