Related papers: Extreme Events: Mechanisms and Prediction

Emergence is a pregnant property in various fields. It is the fact for a phenomenon to appear surprisingly and to be such that it seems at first sight that it is not possible to predict its apparition. That is the reason why it has often…

Unexpected dynamic phenomena have surprised solar system observers in the past and have led to important discoveries about solar system workings. Observations at the initial stages of these events provide crucial information on the physical…

Noise plays a fundamental role in a wide variety of physical and biological dynamical systems. It can arise from an external forcing or due to random dynamics internal to the system. It is well established that even weak noise can result in…

Instabilities and strong dynamical interactions between multiple giant planets have been proposed as a possible explanation for the surprising orbital properties of extrasolar planetary systems. In particular, dynamical instabilities seem…

Complex evolving systems such as the biosphere, ecosystems and societies exhibit sudden collapses, for reasons that are only partially understood. Here we study this phenomenon using a mathematical model of a system that evolves under…

Rare event prediction involves identifying and forecasting events with a low probability using machine learning (ML) and data analysis. Due to the imbalanced data distributions, where the frequency of common events vastly outweighs that of…

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot…

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…

We consider emergence from the perspective of dynamics: states of a system evolving with time. We focus on the role of a decomposition of wholes into parts, and attempt to characterize relationships between levels without reference to…

We report measurements that show extreme events in the statistics of resonant radiation emitted from spatiotemporal light bullets. We trace the origin of these extreme events back to instabilities leading to steep gradients in the temporal…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

Investigation of the critical levels and catastrophes in the complex systems of different nature is useful and perspective. Mathematical modeling and analysis is presented for revealing and investigation of the phenomena and critical levels…

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

Rogue waves, characterized by their abrupt and extreme localization in space and time, have evolved from maritime folklore to subjects of intense study across diverse fields, from hydrodynamics and nonlinear optics to plasmas and condensed…

Extreme events in society and nature, such as pandemic spikes, rogue waves, or structural failures, can have catastrophic consequences. Characterizing extremes is difficult as they occur rarely, arise from seemingly benign conditions, and…

In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial…

Many scientific and engineering problems require accurate models of dynamical systems with rare and extreme events. Such problems present a challenging task for data-driven modelling, with many naive machine learning methods failing to…

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal…

This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…

Rogue waves are rapid and unpredictable events of exceptional amplitude reported in various fields, such as oceanography and optics, with much of the interest being targeted towards their physical origins and likelihood of occurrence. Here,…