Related papers: Extreme Events: Mechanisms and Prediction

Extreme events such as earthquakes, floods, and power blackouts often display burst phenomena where multiple extreme events occur in quick succession or in bunches. This study examines bunching of extreme events on a complex network using a…

Predicting extreme events in chaotic systems, characterized by rare but intensely fluctuating properties, is of great importance due to their impact on the performance and reliability of a wide range of systems. Some examples include…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

As an example for complex systems with extreme events we investigate ocean wave states exhibiting rogue waves. We present a statistical method of data analysis based on multi-point statistics which for the first time allows grasping extreme…

Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…

The object of this paper is twofold. From one side we study the dichotomy, in terms of the Extremal Index of the possible Extreme Value Laws, when the rare events are centred around periodic or non periodic points. Then we build a general…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

Extreme events have low occurrence probabilities and display pronounced deviation from their average behaviour, such as earthquakes or power blackouts. Such extreme events occurring on the nodes of a complex network have been extensively…

This article examines the subtle relationship between chaos and randomness, two concepts that, although they refer to seemingly unpredictable phenomenon, are based on fundamentally different principles. Chaos manifests in deterministic…

To understand the emergence of Ultrafast Extreme Events (UEEs), the influence of algorithmic trading or high-frequency traders is of major interest as they make it extremely difficult to intervene and to stabilize financial markets. In an…

Since 1970, the R\"ossler system has remained as a considerably simpler and minimal dimensional chaos serving system. Unveiling the dynamics of a system of two coupled chaotic oscillators that leads to the emergence of extreme events in the…

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

Extreme events such as rogue wave in optics and fluids are often associated with the merging dynamics of coherent structures. We present experimental and numerical results on the physics of extreme events appearance in a spatially extended…

In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has deeply impacted various fields, including Earth system sciences. Here, AI improved weather forecasting, model emulation, parameter estimation, and the prediction of extreme events. However,…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

We study the extreme events taking place on complex networks. The transport on networks is modelled using random walks and we compute the probability for the occurance and recurrence of extreme events on the network. We show that the nodes…

Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…

Extreme events, or rogue waves, are high-amplitude, rare occurrences that emerge across diverse physical systems and often defy conventional statistical predictions. While optical systems provide a controlled setting for studying these…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Many dynamical systems exhibit unexpected large amplitude excursions in the chronological progression of a state variable. In the present work, we consider the dynamics associated with the one-dimensional Higgs oscillator which is realized…