Related papers: Extreme Events: Mechanisms and Prediction

The extremal characteristics of random structures, including trees, graphs, and networks, are discussed. A statistical physics approach is employed in which extremal properties are obtained through suitably defined rate equations. A variety…

Extreme values of real phenomena are events that occur with low frequency, but can have a large impact on real life. These are, in many practical problems, high-dimensional by nature (e.g. Tawn, 1990; Coles and Tawn, 1991). To study these…

When developing autonomous systems, engineers and other stakeholders make great effort to prepare the system for all foreseeable events and conditions. However, these systems are still bound to encounter events and conditions that were not…

We study the impact of the coupling topology on the ability of various networked dynamical systems to generate extreme events. By determining the coupling strength that is necessary to generate an extreme event in the collective dynamics of…

Complex systems performing spiking dynamics are widespread in Nature. They cover from earthquakes, to neurons, variable stars, social networks, or stock markets. Understanding and characterizing their dynamics is relevant in order to detect…

Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…

It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method…

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

The concept of random dynamical system is a comparatively recent development combining ideas and methods from the well developed areas of probability theory and dynamical systems. Due to our inaccurate knowledge of the particular physical…

Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of…

Extreme climate events, e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, and freezes, are becoming more frequent and intense with severe global socio-economic impacts. Growing populations and economic activity leads to increased exposure to these…

Consequences of the basic and most evident consistency requirement-that measured events cannot happen and not happen at the same time-are shortly reviewed. Particular emphasis is given to event forecast and event control. As a consequence,…

We present a statistical analysis based on the height and return time probabilities of high amplitude wave events in both focusing and defocusing Manakov systems. We find that analytical rational/semirational solutions, associated with…

Extreme events generated by complex systems have been intensively studied in many fields due to their great impact on scientific research and our daily lives. However, their prediction is still a challenge in spite of the tremendous…

We study a one-dimensional chain of harmonically coupled units in an asymmetric anharmonic soft potential. Due to nonlinear localisation of energy, this system exhibits extreme events in the sense that individual elements of the chain show…

Random population dynamics with catastrophes (events pertaining to possible elimination of a large portion of the population) has a long history in the mathematical literature. In this paper we study an ergodic model for random population…

Sharp changes in time series representing market dynamics are studied by means of the self--similar analysis suggested earlier by the authors. These sharp changes are market booms and crashes. Such crises phenomena in markets are analogous…

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…

Extreme-event predictability in turbulence is strongly state dependent, yet event-by-event predictability horizons are difficult to quantify without access to governing equations or costly perturbation ensembles. Here we train an…

We have witnessed and experienced increasing compound extreme events resulting from simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple events in a changing climate. In addition to a growing demand for a clearer explanation of compound risks…