Related papers: Generalized Pareto Processes and Liquidity
Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a widely used class of models of interest to statisticians as they provide a flexible way to design interpretable models of data beyond linear models. We here propose a scalable and well-calibrated…
In the current literature, the analytical tractability of discrete time option pricing models is guaranteed only for rather specific types of models and pricing kernels. We propose a very general and fully analytical option pricing…
The paper develops a general flexible framework for Network Autoregressive Processes (NAR), wherein the response of each node linearly depends on its past values, a prespecified linear combination of neighboring nodes and a set of…
Data-driven modelling and synthesis of motion is an active research area with applications that include animation, games, and social robotics. This paper introduces a new class of probabilistic, generative, and controllable motion-data…
A Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model accounting for discreteness and autocorrelation of count time series data is typically estimated in the state-space modelling framework through extended Kalman filter. However, because of the complex…
Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…
We consider evidence integration from potentially dependent observation processes under varying spatio-temporal sampling resolutions and noise levels. We develop a multi-resolution multi-task (MRGP) framework while allowing for both…
Earth observation from satellite sensory data poses challenging problems, where machine learning is currently a key player. In recent years, Gaussian Process (GP) regression has excelled in biophysical parameter estimation tasks from…
We consider estimation of the parameters of a Gaussian Stochastic Process (GaSP), in the context of emulation (approximation) of computer models for which the outcomes are real-valued scalars. The main focus is on estimation of the GaSP…
We consider the problems of parameter estimation for several models of threshold ergodic diffusion processes in the asymptotics of large samples. These models are the direct continuous time analogues of the well-known in time series…
The aim of this paper is to develop estimation and inference methods for the drift parameters of multivariate L\'evy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order $p\in\mathbb{N}$. Starting from a continuous-time observation of…
This paper proposes a framework for multi-robot systems to perform simultaneous learning and coverage of a domain of interest characterized by an unknown and potentially time-varying density function. To overcome the limitations of Gaussian…
Recent advances in extreme value theory have established $\ell$-Pareto processes as the natural limits for extreme events defined in terms of exceedances of a risk functional. Here we provide methods for the practical modelling of data…
Linear models that contain a time-dependent response and explanatory variables have attracted much interest in recent years. The most general form of the existing approaches is of a linear regression model with autoregressive moving average…
Mixture autoregressive (MAR) models provide a flexible way to model time series with predictive distributions which depend on the recent history of the process and are able to accommodate asymmetry and multimodality. Bayesian inference for…
We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local,…
In this paper we propose an identification method for latent-variable graphical models associated to autoregressive (AR) Gaussian stationary processes. The identification procedure exploits the approximation of AR processes through…
Nonstationary spatial processes can often be represented as stationary processes on a warped spatial domain. Selecting an appropriate spatial warping function for a given application is often difficult and, as a result of this, warping…
Variational approximation techniques and inference for stochastic models in machine learning has gained much attention the last years. Especially in the case of Gaussian Processes (GP) and their deep versions, Deep Gaussian Processes…
Often in machine learning, data are collected as a combination of multiple conditions, e.g., the voice recordings of multiple persons, each labeled with an ID. How could we build a model that captures the latent information related to these…