Related papers: Generalized Pareto Processes and Liquidity

In this article, we introduce and study a one sided tempered stable first order autoregressive model called TAR(1). Under the assumption of stationarity of the model, the marginal probability density function of the error term is found. It…

The statistical modeling of discrete extremes has received less attention than their continuous counterparts in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) literature. One approach to the transition from continuous to discrete extremes is the modeling…

A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found…

Stationary graph process models are commonly used in the analysis and inference of data sets collected on irregular network topologies. While most of the existing methods represent graph signals with a single stationary process model that…

Models characterized by autoregressive structure and random coefficients are powerful tools for the analysis of high-frequency, high-dimensional and volatile time series. The available literature on such models is broad, but also sectorial,…

This paper proposes Fourier-based and wavelet-based techniques for analyzing periodic financial time series. Conventional models such as the periodic autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (PGARCH) and periodic autoregressive…

This paper introduces the class of ambiguity sparse processes, containing subsets of popular nonstationary time series such as locally stationary, cyclostationary and uniformly modulated processes. The class also contains aggregations of…

We define a general class of network formation models, Statistical Exponential Random Graph Models (SERGMs), that nest standard exponential random graph models (ERGMs) as a special case. We provide the first general results on when these…

Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity.…

Peaks-over-threshold analysis using the generalized Pareto distribution is widely applied in modelling tails of univariate random variables, but much information may be lost when complex extreme events are studied using univariate results.…

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge…

This paper introduces a novel approach, the bivariate generalized autoregressive (BGAR) model, for modeling and forecasting bivariate time series data. The BGAR model generalizes the bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) models by allowing…

Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…

Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large number of states are of high practical interest. However, conventional algorithms to solve MDP are computationally infeasible in this scenario. Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods tackle…

Modeling sequential data has become more and more important in practice. Some applications are autonomous driving, virtual sensors and weather forecasting. To model such systems so called recurrent models are used. In this article we…

This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

A generalized Gaussian process model (GGPM) is a unifying framework that encompasses many existing Gaussian process (GP) models, such as GP regression, classification, and counting. In the GGPM framework, the observation likelihood of the…

We introduce a new computational framework for estimating parameters in generalized generalized linear models (GGLM), a class of models that extends the popular generalized linear models (GLM) to account for dependencies among observations…

Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human…