Related papers: Generalized Pareto Processes and Liquidity

Here we present a theoretical study on the main properties of Fractionally Integrated Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) processes. We analyze the conditions for the existence, the invertibility,…

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM)…

An extension of the RINAR(1) process for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model RINAR(p) investigated here is a direct and natural extension of the real AR(p) model. Compared to classical INAR(p)…

Modeling and interpreting spike train data is a task of central importance in computational neuroscience, with significant translational implications. Two popular classes of data-driven models for this task are autoregressive Point Process…

We study infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) in the context of general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithmic framework named Local-fitted Optimization with OPtimism (LOOP), which…

Exponential random graph models, or ERGMs, are a flexible and general class of models for modeling dependent data. While the early literature has shown them to be powerful in capturing many network features of interest, recent work…

In this paper, we define a compound generalized fractional counting process (CGFCP) which is a generalization of the compound versions of several well-known fractional counting processes. We obtain its mean, variance, and the fractional…

We study the convergence time to equilibrium of the Metropolis dynamics for the Generalized Random Energy Model with an arbitrary number of hierarchical levels, a finite and reversible continuous-time Markov process, in terms of the…

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a probabilistic nonparametric representation of functions in regression, classification, and other problems. Unfortunately, exact learning with GPs is intractable for large datasets. A variety of approximate…

Granger causality, a popular method for determining causal influence between stochastic processes, is most commonly estimated via linear autoregressive modeling. However, this approach has a serious drawback: if the process being modeled…

Panel data arise in a wide range of application areas, and developing modelling methods for extreme values under such a setup is essential for reliable risk assessment and management. When choosing to model the marginal distributions of…

In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…

Neural-net-induced Gaussian process (NNGP) regression inherits both the high expressivity of deep neural networks (deep NNs) as well as the uncertainty quantification property of Gaussian processes (GPs). We generalize the current NNGP to…

This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…

The concept of a random process has been recently extended to graph signals, whereby random graph processes are a class of multivariate stochastic processes whose coefficients are matrices with a \textit{graph-topological} structure. The…

The class of observation-driven models (ODMs) includes many models of non-linear time series which, in a fashion similar to, yet different from, hidden Markov models (HMMs), involve hidden variables. Interestingly, in contrast to most HMMs,…

Recent research has shown growing interest in modeling hypergraphs, which capture polyadic interactions among entities beyond traditional dyadic relations. However, most existing methodologies for hypergraphs face significant limitations,…

An autoregressive-moving average model in which all roots of the autoregressive polynomial are reciprocals of roots of the moving average polynomial and vice versa is called an all-pass time series model. All-pass models are useful for…

In this work, we propose a novel framework for large-scale Gaussian process (GP) modeling. Contrary to the global, and local approximations proposed in the literature to address the computational bottleneck with exact GP modeling, we employ…

In this paper we introduce a novel model for Gaussian process (GP) regression in the fully Bayesian setting. Motivated by the ideas of sparsification, localization and Bayesian additive modeling, our model is built around a recursive…