Related papers: Generalized Pareto Processes and Liquidity
The periodic Gaussian process (PGP) has been increasingly used to model periodic data due to its high accuracy. Yet, computing the likelihood of PGP has a high computational complexity of $\mathcal{O}\left(n^{3}\right)$ ($n$ is the data…
We introduce a Gaussian process-based model for handling of non-stationarity. The warping is achieved non-parametrically, through imposing a prior on the relative change of distance between subsequent observation inputs. The model allows…
Estimation in generalized linear models (GLM) is complicated by the presence of constraints. One can handle constraints by maximizing a penalized log-likelihood. Penalties such as the lasso are effective in high dimensions, but often lead…
The paper proposes an identification procedure for autoregressive gaussian stationary stochastic processes wherein the manifest (or observed) variables are mostly related through a limited number of latent (or hidden) variables. The method…
We study generalised additive models, with shape restrictions (e.g. monotonicity, convexity, concavity) imposed on each component of the additive prediction function. We show that this framework facilitates a nonparametric estimator of each…
Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are very flexible for modeling network formation but pose difficult estimation challenges due to their intractable normalizing constant. Existing methods, such as MCMC-MLE, rely on sequential…
Standard autoregressive seq2seq models are easily trained by max-likelihood, but tend to show poor results under small-data conditions. We introduce a class of seq2seq models, GAMs (Global Autoregressive Models), which combine an…
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGP) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes (GP) that have proven to work effectively on a multiple supervised regression tasks. They combine the well calibrated uncertainty estimates of GPs with the…
In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…
We introduce constrained Gaussian process (CGP), a Gaussian process model for random functions that allows easy placement of mathematical constrains (e.g., non-negativity, monotonicity, etc) on its sample functions. CGP comes with…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
We introduce and study a new model for functional data. The ARHD is an autoregressive model in which the first order derivative of the random curves appears explicitely. Convergent estimates are obtained through a double penalization…
Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…
Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…
Analyses of time to event datasets have been invariably based on the Cox proportional hazards model (PHM). Reformulations of the PHM as a Poisson Generalized Additive Model (GAM) or as a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) have been…
Latent force models are a class of hybrid models for dynamic systems, combining simple mechanistic models with flexible Gaussian process (GP) perturbations. An extension of this framework to include multiplicative interactions between the…
While matrix variate regression models have been studied in many existing works, classical statistical and computational methods for the analysis of the regression coefficient estimation are highly affected by high dimensional and noisy…
We investigate the capabilities and limitations of Gaussian process models by jointly exploring three complementary directions: (i) scalable and statistically efficient inference; (ii) flexible kernels; and (iii) objective functions for…
Gaussian processes are a flexible Bayesian nonparametric modelling approach that has been widely applied but poses computational challenges. To address the poor scaling of exact inference methods, approximation methods based on sparse…
Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…