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The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-20 Victor Konev , Serguei Pergamenchtchikov

An Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process can be considered as a continuous time interpolation of the discrete time AR$(1)$ process. Departing from this fact, we analyse in this work the effect of iterating OU treated as a linear operator that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-02 Argimiro Arratia , Alejandra Cabaña , Enrique M. Cabaña

In this work, we consider, in a general setting, multiparameter multidimensional Markov processes that are time-changed by an independent additive subordinator. By extending Phillips theorem, we show that the resulting process is a Feller…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-12 Giuseppe D'Onofrio , Alessandro Mutti , Patrizia Semeraro

We investigate the problem of estimating the drift parameter of a high-dimensional L\'evy-driven Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process under sparsity constraints. It is shown that both Lasso and Slope estimators achieve the minimax optimal rate of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-17 Niklas Dexheimer , Claudia Strauch

Descriptions of complex physical or biological systems often include stochastic contributions, and these are commonly simulated using Wiener processes. In many cases however, non-Gaussian fluctuations may originate from non-Wiener processes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-19 Richard D. J. G. Ho

Complex Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes have various applications in statistical modelling. They play role e.g. in the description of the motion of a charged test particle in a constant magnetic field or in the study of rotating waves in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-13 Sándor Baran , Csilla Szák-Kocsis , Milan Stehlík

We investigate the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in consecutive time-intervals. A PDE method, alongside an eigenfunction expansion, is adopted with which we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-19 Yupeng Jiang , Andrea Macrina , Gareth W. Peters

Consider a branching Markov process, $X = (X(t), t \ge 0)$, with non-local branching mechanism. Studying the asymptotic behaviour of the moments of X has recently received attention in the literature [6, 7] due to the importance of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-03 Christopher B. C. Dean , Emma Horton

In this paper, we study the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge process (i.e. the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process conditioned to start and end at fixed points) constraints to have a fixed area under its path. We present both anticipative (in this case, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-10-11 Alain Mazzolo

We analyze the statistical performance of identification of stochastic dynamical systems with non-linear measurement sensors. This includes stochastic Wiener systems, with linear dynamics, process noise and measured by a non-linear sensor…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-24 Bo Wahlberg , Lennart Ljung

Solving statistical learning problems often involves nonconvex optimization. Despite the empirical success of nonconvex statistical optimization methods, their global dynamics, especially convergence to the desirable local minima, remain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-30 Chris Junchi Li , Zhaoran Wang , Han Liu

We consider a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $X$ driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in (0, \frac12) \cup (\frac12, 1)$. Our goal is to estimate an unknown drift parameter $\alpha\in (-\infty,\infty)$ on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-24 Chihoon Lee , Jian Song

In this paper, we investigate trading strategies based on exponential moving averages (ExpMAs) of an underlying risky asset. We study both logarithmic utility maximization and long-term growth rate maximization problems and find closed-form…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-25 Matthew Lorig , Zhou Zhou , Bin Zou

Nowadays many tools, e.g. fluctuation relations, are available to characterize the statistical properties of non-equilibrium systems. However, most of these tools rely on the assumption that the driving noise is normally distributed. Here…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-11-29 Dario Lucente , Andrea Puglisi , Massimiliano Viale , Angelo Vulpiani

Consider a sequence $(\eta^N(t) :t\ge 0)$ of continuous-time, irreducible Markov chains evolving on a fixed finite set $E$, indexed by a parameter $N$. Denote by $R_N(\eta,\xi)$ the jump rates of the Markov chain $\eta^N_t$, and assume that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-22 C. Landim , T. Xu

Active Matter models commonly consider particles with overdamped dynamics subject to a force (speed) with constant modulus and random direction. Some models include also random noise in particle displacement (Wiener process) resulting in a…

We establish sufficient conditions for the existence, and derive explicit formulas for the $\kappa$'th moments, $\kappa \geq 1$, of Markov modulated generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes as well as their stationary distributions. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-15 Anita Behme , Paolo Di Tella , Apostolos Sideris

Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-30 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

In this paper we derive non-asymptotic Berry-Esseen bounds for Polyak-Ruppert averaged iterates of the Linear Stochastic Approximation (LSA) algorithm driven by the Markovian noise. Our analysis yields $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/4})$ convergence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-27 Sergey Samsonov , Marina Sheshukova , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov