Related papers: Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing
Distributions of strictly positive numbers are common and can be characterized by standard statistical measures such as mean, standard deviation, and skewness. We demonstrate that for these distributions the skewness $D_3$ is bounded from…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
We present a new method of data clustering applied to earthquake catalogs, with the goal of reconstructing the seismically active part of fault networks. We first use an original method to separate clustered events from uncorrelated…
Based on recent results in extreme value theory, we use a new technique for the statistical estimation of distribution tails. Specifically, we use the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem, which gives a natural limit law for…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…
In this paper, I present the calculation of the third and fourth moments of both the distribution function of the large--scale density and the large--scale divergence of the velocity field, $\theta$. These calculations are made by the mean…
Experiments at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) have measured multiplicity distributions in proton-proton collisions at a new domain of center-of-mass energy ($\sqrt {s}$) in limited pseudorapidity intervals. We analyze multiplicity…
The Caucasus region is characterized by heterogeneous and strong seismicity as a result of collision between Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates. A rich variety of seismic events also distinguishes Azerbaijan, located in its south part. In…
The Mardia measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis summarize the respective characteristics of a multivariate distribution with two numbers. However, these measures do not reflect the sub-dimensional features of the distribution.…
Mathematical models of real life phenomena are highly nonlinear involving multiple parameters and often exhibiting complex dynamics. Experimental data sets are typically small and noisy, rendering estimation of parameters from such data…
We show analytically that the answer to the question, "The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next ?" depends crucially on the statistics of the fluctuations in the interval times between…
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…
The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
We have numerically investigated statistical properties of the so-called interoccurrence time or the waiting time, i.e., the time interval between successive earthquakes, based on the two-dimensional (2-D) spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff)…
One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal…