Related papers: Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing
It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…
The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluate earthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make use of likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution…
We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
We report the analysis of the statistics of the phase fluctuations in the coda of earthquakes recorded during a temporary experiment deployed at Pinyon Flats Observatory, California. The practical measurement of the phase is discussed and…
Upon employing the analysis in a new time domain, termed natural time, it has been recently demonstrated that a remarkable change of seismicity emerges before major mainshocks in California. What constitutes this change is that the…
This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…
Statistical properties of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes obeying the rate and state dependent friction law are studied by extensive computer simulations. The quantities computed include the…
We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…
In 2020, two novel distributions for the analysis of directional data were introduced: the spherical Cauchy distribution and the Poisson kernel-based distribution. This paper provides a detailed exploration of both distributions within…
We calculate model-independently the impact of the critical point on higher order baryon susceptibilities $\chi_n$, showing how they depend on fluctuations of the order parameter. Including all tree level diagrams, we find new contributions…
Kurtosis is seen as a measure of the discrepancy between the observed data and a Gaussian distribution and is defined when the 4th moment is finite. In this work an empirical study is conducted to investigate the behaviour of the sample…
Machine learning is becoming increasingly important in scientific and technological progress, due to its ability to create models that describe complex data and generalize well. The wealth of publicly-available seismic data nowadays…
Operational earthquake forecasting for risk management and communication during seismic sequences depends on our ability to select an optimal forecasting model. To do this, we need to compare the performance of competing models with each…
We study the statistical properties of time distribution of seimicity in California by means of a new method of analysis, the Diffusion Entropy. We find that the distribution of time intervals between a large earthquake (the main shock of a…
The dragon-king earthquake hypothesis proposes that some very large to great earthquakes are not merely the extreme end of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter distribution (FMD), but are generated by distinct physical mechanisms,…
A new non-parametric statistic is introduced for the characterization of deviations from power laws. It is tested on the distribution of seismic energies given by the Gutenberg-Richter law. Based on the two first statistical log-moments, it…
Earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment remain fundamental challenges in geophysics, with existing machine learning approaches often operating as black boxes that ignore established physical laws. We introduce POSEIDON…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…