Related papers: Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the…
We propose that the widely observed and universal Gutenberg-Richter relation is a mathematical consequence of the critical branching nature of earthquake process in a brittle fracture environment. These arguments, though preliminary, are…
The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…
The quantum statistical parton distributions approach proposed more than one decade ago is revisited by considering a larger set of recent and accurate Deep Inelastic Scattering experimental results. It enables us to improve the description…
Earthquakes in seismological catalogs and acoustic emission events in lab experiments can be statistically described as a linear Hawkes point process, where the spatio-temporal rate of events is a linear superposition of background…
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability…
Many systems in nature are conjectured to exist at a critical point, including the brain and earthquake faults. The primary reason for this conjecture is that the distribution of clusters (avalanches of firing neurons in the brain or…
Megathrust earthquakes are the largest on Earth, capable of causing strong ground shaking and generating tsunamis. Physical models used to understand megathrust earthquake hazard are limited by existing uncertainties about material…
In this paper, we develop a numerical approach based on Chaos expansions to analyze the sensitivity and the propagation of epistemic uncertainty through a queueing systems with breakdowns. Here, the quantity of interest is the stationary…
Earthquakes are a major threat to nations worldwide. Earthquake detection is an important scientific challenge, not only for its social impacts, but also since it reflects the actual degree of understanding of the physical processes…
We study statistical distributions in a mechanical model for an earthquake fault introduced by Burridge and Knopoff [R. Burridge and L. Knopoff, {\sl Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.} {\bf 57}, 341 (1967)]. Our investigations on the size (moment),…
Two classes of GRBs have been confidently identified thus far and are prescribed to different physical scenarios -- NS-NS or NS-BH mergers, and collapse of massive stars, for short and long GRBs, respectively. A third, intermediate in…
Particle density fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetically confined plasmas, as measured by gas-puff imaging or Langmuir probes, are modeled as the realization of a stochastic process in which a superposition of pulses with a…
It was conjectured for a long time that the tectonic plates are in a self-organized state of criticality and that the Gutenberg-Richter law is a manifestation of that. It was recently shown that for a system near criticality, the inequality…
We consider a situation where the distribution of a random variable is being estimated by the empirical distribution of noisy measurements of that variable. This is common practice in, for example, teacher value-added models and other…
Recent work has suggested that in highly correlated systems, such as sandpiles, turbulent fluids, ignited trees in forest fires and magnetization in a ferromagnet close to a critical point, the probability distribution of a global quantity…
The variation of fractal dimension and entropy during a damage evolution process, especially approaching critical failure, has been recently investigated. A sudden drop of fractal dimension has been proposed as a quantitative indicator of…
Two-point correlation functions of systems with baryon number $B \in \{1,2,3,4\}$ are investigated using lattice Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). In particular, the empirical distributions of importance-sampling Monte-Carlo samples of these…
Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible…
Amongst the available technologies for earthquake research, remote sensing has been commonly used due to its unique features such as fast imaging and wide image-acquisition range. Nevertheless, early studies on pre-earthquake and…