Statistical tests for evaluating an earthquake prediction method
Methodology
2020-02-18 v1 Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Geophysics
Applications
Abstract
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast the earthquakes. We formulate a statistical test for this possibility.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1803.04077,
title = {Statistical tests for evaluating an earthquake prediction method},
author = {Kurt S. Riedel},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1803.04077},
year = {2020}
}