Related papers: Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing
The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
Testing the global earthquake catalogue for indications of non-Poissonian attributes has been an area of intense research, especially since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The usual approach is to test statistically for the hypothesis that the…
The skewness and the kurtosis of the baryon number distributions are computed within QCD-improved low energy effective models including quantum thermal and density fluctuations. The results are compared with the Beam Energy Scan experiment…
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and…
The $b$-value in earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution quantifies the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. Monitoring its evolution could provide fundamental insights into temporal variations of stress on different…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Noise is an unavoidable part of most measurements which can hinder a correct interpretation of the data. Uncertainties propagate in the data analysis and can lead to biased results even in basic descriptive statistics such as the central…
Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We…
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…
Above the magnitude of completeness - the minimum threshold for which a 100\% detection rate is assumed - earthquake magnitudes are typically modeled as a continuous exponential distribution. In practice, however, earthquake catalogs report…
We present an overview of our ongoing studies of the rich dynamical behavior of the uniform, deterministic Burridge--Knopoff model of an earthquake fault. We discuss the behavior of the model in the context of current questions in…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…
The b-value, which controls the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes, is a critical parameter in seismic forecasting. However, accurately measuring the true b-value is challenging due to the temporal and spatial…
Spatio-temporal correlations of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. Particular attention is paid to clarifying how the statistical…