Related papers: Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries…
Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…
The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. We developed a…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
The past decade has seen tremendous progress in the development of biomedical agents that are effective as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. To expand the choice of products and delivery methods, new medications and…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
If people at risk of HIV infection are tested annually and started on treatment as soon as they are found to be HIV-positive it should be possible to reduce the case reproduction number for HIV to less than one, eliminate transmission and…
UNAIDS has embraced an ambitious global target for the implementation of treatment for people living with HIV. This 90-90-90 target would mean that, by 2020, 90% of all those living with HIV should know their status, 90% of these would be…
BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
Engaging the private sector in contraceptive method supply is critical for creating equitable, sustainable, and accessible healthcare systems. To achieve this, it is essential to understand where women obtain their modern contraceptives.…
We propose a method of estimating the Total Loss of Healthy Life Years based on the first exit time theory for a stochastic process, the resulting Health State Function and the Deterioration Function estimated as the curvature of the health…
Analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data is an important goal for precision medicine. Difficulty in applying Machine Learning (ML) methods, either predictive or unsupervised, stems in part from the heterogeneity and…
Estimating new HIV infections is significant yet challenging due to the difficulty in distinguishing between recent and long-term infections. We demonstrate that HIV recency status (recent v.s. long-term) could be determined from the…
The United Nations in its 2011 resolution declared the pursuit of happiness a fundamental human goal and proposed public and economic policies centered around happiness. In this paper we used 2 types of computational strategies viz.…
Large whole-genome sequencing projects have provided access to much of the rare variation in human populations, which is highly informative about population structure and recent demography. Here, we show how the age of rare variants can be…
In cancer epidemiology using population-based data, regression models for the excess mortality hazard is a useful method to estimate cancer survival and to describe the association between prognosis factors and excess mortality. This method…
Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and wellbeing. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often…
The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives.…