Related papers: Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries…
HIV is a retrovirus that attacks the human immune system and can lead to death without proper treatment. In collaboration with the WHO and Wits University, we study how to improve the efficiency of HIV testing with the goal of eventual…
Controlling an epidemiological model is often performed using optimal control theory techniques for which the solution depends on the equations of the control system, objective functional and possible state and/or control constraints. In…
Methods are lacking to handle the problem of survival analysis in the presence of an interval-censored covariate, specifically the case in which the conditional hazard of the primary event of interest depends on the occurrence of a…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
With the launch of second line anti-retroviral therapy for HIV infected individuals, there has been an increased expectation on surviving period of people with HIV. We consider previously well-known models in HIV epidemiology where the…
We present a new joint longitudinal and survival model aimed at estimating the association between the risk of an event and the change in and history of a biomarker that is repeatedly measured over time. We use cubic B-splines models for…
Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can be considered a deadly human syndemic. In this article, we formulate a model for TB and HIV transmission dynamics. The model considers both TB and acquired immune deficiency…
We introduce a new tuberculosis (TB) mathematical model, with $25$ state-space variables where $15$ are evolution disease states (EDSs), which generalises previous models and takes into account the (seasonal) flux of populations between a…
The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…
Chikungunya is an emerging threat for health security all over the world which is spreading very fast. Researches for proper forecasting of the incidence rate of chikungunya has been going on in many places in which DARPA has done a very…
For estimating area-specific parameters (quantities) in a finite population, a mixed model prediction approach is attractive. However, this approach strongly depends on the normality assumption of the response values although we often…
Background: A common modelling approach in public health and epidemiology divides the population under study into compartments containing persons that share the same status. Here we consider a three-state model with the compartments: A, B…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…
We estimate patterns of covariation between COVID-19 vaccination rates and a set of widely used indicators of human, social, and economic capital across 146 countries in July 2021 and February 2022. About 70% of the variability in COVID-19…
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a…
The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a widely used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations, especially groups most at-risk for HIV/AIDS. Data are collected through a peer-referral process in which current sample members…
Understanding how population age structure shapes COVID-19 burden is crucial for pandemic preparedness, yet common summary measures such as median age ignore key distributional features like skewness, bimodality, and the proportional weight…
We study the impact on the epidemiological dynamics of a class of restrictive measures that are aimed at reducing the number of contacts of individuals who have a higher risk of being infected with a transmittable disease. Such measures are…