Related papers: Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries…
HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…
Improving health in the most disadvantaged populations requires reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators to inform policy and interventions. Low- and middle-income countries with the largest burden of disease and disability…
Demographic models built from genetic data play important roles in illuminating prehistorical events and serving as null models in genome scans for selection. We introduce an inference method based on the joint frequency spectrum of genetic…
The dynamic theory of inhomogeneous populations developed during the last decade predicts several essential new dynamic regimes applicable even to the well-known, simple population models. We show that, in an inhomogeneous population with a…
The abrupt decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Puerto Rico since 2000 makes the prospect of a sustained population decline a real possibility. From 2000 to 2021 the TFR declined from 2.1 to 0.9 children per woman, one of the lowest…
Following the recent publication of our book on Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-65142-2) we provide this…
Assessment of circulating CD4 count change over time in HIV-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a central component of disease monitoring. The increasing number of HIV-infected subjects starting therapy and the limited…
The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the…
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…
Longitudinal cohorts to determine the incidence of HIV infection are logistically challenging, so researchers have sought alternative strategies. Recency test methods use biomarker profiles of HIV-infected subjects in a cross-sectional…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…
Respondent-driven sampling is a form of link-tracing network sampling, which is widely used to study hard-to-reach populations, often to estimate population proportions. Previous treatments of this process have used a with-replacement…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…
We propose a population model for HIV-TB co-infection dynamics by considering treatments for HIV infection, active tuberculosis and co-infection. The HIV only and TB only models are analyzed separately, as well as full model. The basic…
Classical epidemiological models assume homogeneous populations. There have been important extensions to model heterogeneous populations, when the identity of the sub-populations is known, such as age group or geographical location. Here,…
Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment…
The objective is to model longitudinal and survival data jointly taking into account the dependence between the two responses in a real HIV/AIDS dataset using a shared parameter approach inside a Bayesian framework. We propose a linear…