Related papers: Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries…
The control of opportunistic infections among HIV infected individuals should be one of the major public health concerns in reducing mortality rate of individuals living with HIV/AIDS. In this study a deterministic co-infection mathematical…
Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…
Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transition between stable states. Existing approaches for…
We estimate cumulative CO2 emissions during the period 2000 to 2050 from developed and developing countries based on the empirical relationship between CO2 per capita emissions (due to fossil fuel combustion and cement production) and…
The epidemic of HIV in Angola started later and stabilized at lower levels than elsewhere in southern Africa. With a relatively small population and a high GDP, Angola is in a good position to intervene decisively to control HIV. The…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
We consider a time-delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with education dissemination and study the asymptotic dynamics of solutions as well as the asymptotic behavior of the endemic equilibrium with respect to the amount of information…
The issue of longevity has been long time recognized as one of key concepts in demography. A particular aspect of longevity addressed in this paper is the difference in average observed duration of life for female and male population,…
The precise mechanism that causes HIV infection to progress to AIDS is still unknown. This paper presents a mathematical model which is able to predict the entire trajectory of the HIV/AIDS dynamics, then a possible explanation for this…
To verify the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy (HALE) estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) we propose a very simple model based on the mortality {\mu}x of a population provided in a…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption of random…
Population protocols are a relatively novel computational model in which very resource-limited anonymous agents interact in pairs with the goal of computing predicates. We consider the probabilistic version of this model, which naturally…
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations provide a blueprint of a better future by 'leaving no one behind', and, to achieve the SDGs by 2030, poor countries require immense volumes of development aid. In this paper, we…
Network sampling is used around the world for surveys of vulnerable, hard-to-reach populations including people at risk for HIV, opioid misuse, and emerging epidemics. The sampling methods include tracing social links to add new people to…
Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…