Related papers: Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a new 90-90-90 global target for the coverage of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to be reached by 2020. This would mean that 90% of all people infected with HIV know their…
As populations age, the rise of multimorbidity poses a significant healthcare challenge. However, our ability to quantitatively forecast the progression of multimorbidity remains limited. Leveraging a nationwide dataset comprising…
This study utilizes mathematical models to assess progress toward achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets aimed at managing and eradicating HIV/AIDS. It contrasts stochastic and deterministic models, focusing on their utility in…
Planning, implementation and evaluation of public health policies to control the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic require regular monitoring of disease burden. This includes the proportion living with HIV, whether diagnosed or…
Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at national level, due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to simultaneously estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates. Recently, HIV…
Estimating the true mortality burden of COVID-19 for every country in the world is a difficult, but crucial, public health endeavor. Attributing deaths, direct or indirect, to COVID-19 is problematic. A more attainable target is the "excess…
Accurate estimation of cancer mortality rates and the comparison across cancer sites, populations or time periods is crucial to public health, as identification of vulnerable groups who suffer the most from these diseases may lead to…
The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rates (TFR) for all countries, and is widely used, including as part of the basis for the UN's official population…
One of the cornerstones in combating the HIV pandemic is being able to assess the current state and evolution of local HIV epidemics. This remains a complex problem, as many HIV infected individuals remain unaware of their infection status,…
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective intervention for preventing HIV transmission, but high cost and uneven uptake raise challenges for resource allocation. While spillover effects, wherein PrEP use in one group reduces…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical…
Smoking is one of the preventable threats to human health and is a major risk factor for lung cancer, upper aero-digestive cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Estimating and forecasting the smoking attributable fraction (SAF)…
Following our previous works on the health state of a population and the related health state function we proceed in developing a method to estimate the Healthy Life Expectancy in connection to the relative impact of the Mortality Area in…
We establish a stochastic HIV/AIDS model for the individuals with protection awareness and reveal how the protection awareness plays its important role in the control of AIDS. We firstly show that there exists a global positive solution for…
Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family…
It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…
Accurate HIV incidence estimation based on individual recent infection status (recent vs long-term infection) is important for monitoring the epidemic, targeting interventions to those at greatest risk of new infection, and evaluating…