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Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

A pair of probability distributions over $\{0,1\}^n$ is said to be $(k,\delta)$-wise indistinguishable if all of the size $k$ marginals are within statistical distance at most $\delta$. Previous works introduced this concept and study when…

There is a result of Diaconis and Freedman which says that, in a limiting sense, for large collections of high-dimensional data most one-dimensional projections of the data are approximately Gaussian. This paper gives quantitative versions…

Let $\alpha_n(\cdot)=P\bigl(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\bigr)$ be the predictive distributions of a sequence $(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$ of $p$-dimensional random vectors. Suppose $$\alpha_n= \mathcal{N} _p (M_n,Q_n)$$ where…

A random vector $X=(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ with the $X_i$ taking values in an arbitrary measurable space $(S, \mathscr{S})$ is exchangeable if its law is the same as that of $(X_{\sigma(1)}, \ldots, X_{\sigma(n)})$ for any permutation $\sigma$.…

Given disjoint subsets $T_1,\ldots,T_m$ of "not too large" primes up to $x$, we establish that for a random integer $n$ drawn from $[1,x]$, the $m$-dimensional vector enumerating the number of prime factors of $n$ from $T_1,\ldots,T_m$…

We obtain non-asymptotic Gaussian concentration bounds for the difference between the invariant measure $\nu$ of an ergodic Brownian diffusion process and the empirical distribution of an approximating scheme with decreasing time step along…

We examine a generalization of the binomial distribution associated with a strictly increasing sequence of numbers and we prove its Poisson-like limit. Such generalizations might be found in quantum optics with imperfect detection. We…

Consider error terms x(i) of a moving average process MA(q), where x(i)=e(i) + e(i-1)+...+e(i-q) and e(i) - independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. We recognize a term x(i) as a local maximum if the following…

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

Random measures provide flexible parameters for Bayesian nonparametric models. Given two different priors for a random measure, we develop a natural framework to investigate the rate at which the corresponding posteriors merge, as the…

Assume that $\alpha>1$ is an algebraic number and $\xi\neq0$ is a real number. We are concerned with the distribution of the fractional parts of the sequence $(\xi \alpha^{n})$. Under various Diophantine conditions on $\xi$ and $\alpha$, we…

The practical implementation of Bayesian inference requires numerical approximation when closed-form expressions are not available. What types of accuracy (convergence) of the numerical approximations guarantee robustness and what types do…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

The likelihood function is central to both frequentist and Bayesian formulations of parametric statistical inference, and large-sample approximations to the sampling distributions of estimators and test statistics, and to posterior…

A general explicit upper bound is obtained for the proportion $P(n,m)$ of elements of order dividing $m$, where $n-1 \le m \le cn$ for some constant $c$, in the finite symmetric group $S_n$. This is used to find lower bounds for the…

The polynomial birth-death distribution (abbr. as PBD) on $\ci=\{0,1,2, >...\}$ or $\ci=\{0,1,2, ..., m\}$ for some finite $m$ introduced in Brown & Xia (2001) is the equilibrium distribution of the birth-death process with birth rates…

We develop a Bayesian highest-density interval (HDI) for use in within-subject designs. This credible interval is based on a standard noninformative prior and a modified posterior distribution that conditions on both the data and point…

The Poisson distribution arises naturally when dealing with data involving counts, and it has found many applications in inverse problems and imaging. In this work, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference technique based on expectation…