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We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…
For a Gaussian time series with long-memory behavior, we use the FEXP-model for semi-parametric estimation of the long-memory parameter $d$. The true spectral density $f_o$ is assumed to have long-memory parameter $d_o$ and a FEXP-expansion…
Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…
An empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of possibly sparse sequences observed in Gaussian white noise is set out and investigated. The prior considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density \gamma,…
Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…
The article presents a systematic study of the problem of conditioning a Gaussian random variable $\xi$ on nonlinear observations of the form $F \circ \phi(\xi)$ where $\phi: \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}^N$ is a bounded linear operator and…
The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…
We propose a new method to approximate the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs by means of computing guaranteed bounds. The starting point of our work is an interval-based trace semantics for a recursive, higher-order…
In this paper, we develop a computational approach for estimating the mean value of a quantity in the presence of uncertainty. We demonstrate that, under some mild assumptions, the upper and lower bounds of the mean value are efficiently…
We study the density estimation problem defined as follows: given $k$ distributions $p_1, \ldots, p_k$ over a discrete domain $[n]$, as well as a collection of samples chosen from a ``query'' distribution $q$ over $[n]$, output $p_i$ that…
We establish Hoeffding-type concentration inequalities for the low and high tail bounds of sums of exchangeable random variables. Our results exhibit an anti-symmetry in such tail bounds due to the assumption of exchangeability, a…
Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…
Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted…
We provide a general bound on the Wasserstein distance between two arbitrary distributions of sequences of Bernoulli random variables. The bound is in terms of a mixing quantity for the Glauber dynamics of one of the sequences, and a simple…
If one seeks to estimate the total variation between two product measures $||P^\otimes_{1:n}-Q^\otimes_{1:n}||$ in terms of their marginal TV sequence $\delta=(||P_1-Q_1||,||P_2-Q_2||,\ldots,||P_n-Q_n||)$, then trivial upper and lower…
This paper is devoted to establishing exponential bounds for the probabilities of deviation of a sample sum from its expectation, when the variables involved in the summation are obtained by sampling in a finite population according to a…
Bayesian inferences in high energy physics often use uniform prior distributions for parameters about which little or no information is available before data are collected. The resulting posterior distributions are therefore sensitive to…
This article derives quantitative limit theorems for multivariate Poisson and Poisson process approximations. Employing the solution of Stein's equation for Poisson random variables, we obtain an explicit bound for the multivariate Poisson…
Let $Y=X_1+\cdots+X_N$ be a sum of a random number of exchangeable random variables, where the random variable $N$ is independent of the $X_j$, and the $X_j$ are from the generalized multinomial model introduced by Tallis (1962). This…
We provide a lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable is exceeding its mean. Our proof employs estimates on the mean absolute deviation and the tail conditional expectation of binomial random variables.