Related papers: Frequentistic approximations to Bayesian prevision…
In this work, we consider two sets of dependent variables $\{X_{1},\ldots,X_{n}\}$ and $\{Y_{1},\ldots,Y_{n}\}$, where $X_{i}\sim EW(\alpha_{i},\lambda_{i},k_{i})$ and $Y_{i}\sim EW(\beta_{i},\mu_{i},l_{i})$, for $i=1,\ldots, n$, which are…
Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Extremal spacings between eigenvalues of random unitary matrices of size N pertaining to circular ensembles are investigated. Explicit probability distributions for the minimal spacing for various ensembles are derived for N = 4. We study…
Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…
We consider the variable selection problem in linear regression. Suppose that we have a set of random variables $X_1,...,X_m,Y,\epsilon$ such that $Y=\sum_{k\in \pi}\alpha_kX_k+\epsilon$ with $\pi\subseteq \{1,...,m\}$ and $\alpha_k\in…
Estimation of permutation entropy (PE) using Bayesian statistical methods is presented for systems where the ordinal pattern sampling follows an independent, multinomial distribution. It is demonstrated that the PE posterior distribution is…
Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…
In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…
This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
In this work the issue of Bayesian inference for stationary data is addressed. Therefor a parametrization of a statistically suitable subspace of the the shift-ergodic probability measures on a Cartesian product of some finite state space…
The radiological characterization of contaminated elements (walls, grounds, objects) from nuclear facilities often suffers from a too small number of measurements. In order to determine risk prediction bounds on the level of contamination,…
Gibbs-type random probability measures and the exchangeable random partitions they induce represent an important framework both from a theoretical and applied point of view. In the present paper, motivated by species sampling problems, we…
We introduce a general Bayesian framework for graph matching grounded in a new theory of exchangeable random permutations. Leveraging the cycle representation of permutations and the literature on exchangeable random partitions, we define,…
Let $Q_n(x)=\sum_{i=0}^{n} A_{i}x^{i}$ be a random algebraic polynomial where the coefficients $A_0,A_1,... $ form a sequence of centered Gaussian random variables. Moreover, assume that the increments $\Delta_j=A_j-A_{j-1}$, $j=0,1,2,...$…
This paper considers data-driven chance-constrained stochastic optimization problems in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian posteriors afford a principled mechanism to incorporate data and prior knowledge into stochastic optimization problems.…
Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…
The following problem is considered: given a joint distribution $P_{XY}$ and an event $E$, bound $P_{XY}(E)$ in terms of $P_XP_Y(E)$ (where $P_XP_Y$ is the product of the marginals of $P_{XY}$) and a measure of dependence of $X$ and $Y$.…
Let p_n denote the persistence probability that the first n iterated partial sums of integrable, zero-mean, i.i.d. random variables X_k, are negative. We show that p_n is bounded above up to universal constant by the square root of the…
The following anticoncentration property is proved. The probability that the $k$-order statistic of an arbitrarily correlated jointly Gaussian random vector $X$ with unit variance components lies within an interval of length $\varepsilon$…