Related papers: Brownian Bridges on Random Intervals
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
We consider financial networks, where banks are connected by contracts such as debts or credit default swaps. We study the clearing problem in these systems: we want to know which banks end up in a default, and what portion of their…
Systems where resource availability approaches a critical threshold are common to many engineering and scientific applications and often necessitate the estimation of first passage time statistics of a Brownian motion (Bm) driven by…
This paper considers a variant of the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing…
We investigate the properties of a Wright-Fisher diffusion process started from frequency x at time 0 and conditioned to be at frequency y at time T. Such a process is called a bridge. Bridges arise naturally in the analysis of selection…
This article analyzes the behavior of a Brownian fluctuation process under a mixed strategic game setup. A variant of a compound Brownian motion has been newly proposed, which is called the Shifted Brownian Fluctuation Process to predict…
We study the phenomenon of coming down from infinity - that is, when the process starts from infinity and never returns to it - for continuous-state branching processes with generalized drift. We provide sufficient conditions on the drift…
We study an optimal investment problem under contagion risk in a financial model subject to multiple jumps and defaults. The global market information is formulated as a progressive enlargement of a default-free Brownian filtration, and the…
The classical Cram\'er-Lundberg risk process models the ruin probability of an insurance company experiencing an incoming cash flow - the premium income, and an outgoing cash flow - the claims. From a system's viewpoint, the web of…
A problem of optimal debt management is modeled as a noncooperative game between a borrower and a pool of lenders, in infinite time horizon with exponential discount. The yearly income of the borrower is governed by a stochastic process.…
We derive explicit formulas for probabilities of Brownian motion with jumps crossing linear or piecewise linear boundaries in any finite interval. We then use these formulas to approximate the boundary crossing probabilities for general…
Drawdowns measuring the decline in value from the historical running maxima over a given period of time, are considered as extremal events from the standpoint of risk management. To date, research on the topic has mainly focus on the side…
We introduce a resetting Brownian bridge as a simple model to study search processes where the total search time $t_f$ is finite and the searcher returns to its starting point at $t_f$. This is simply a Brownian motion with a Poissonian…
We propose a path transformation which applied to a cyclically exchangeable increment process conditions its minimum to belong to a given interval. This path transformation is then applied to processes with start and end at zero. It is seen…
We consider the problem of governing systemic risk in an assets-liabilities dynamical model of banking system. In the model considered each bank is represented by its assets and its liabilities.The capital reserves of a bank are the…
A public firm's bankruptcy prediction is an important financial research problem because of the security price downside risks. Traditional methods rely on accounting metrics that suffer from shortcomings like window dressing and…
Dam breach models are commonly used to predict outflow hydrographs of potentially failing dams and are key ingredients for evaluating flood risk. In this paper a new dam breach modeling framework is introduced that shall improve the…
We study a classical Bayesian statistics problem of sequentially testing the sign of the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion with the $0$-$1$ loss function and a constant cost of observation per unit of time for general prior…
Barrier crossing is a widespread phenomenon across natural and engineering systems. While an abundant cross-disciplinary literature on the topic has emerged over the years, the stochastic underpinnings of the process are yet to be linked…
We study the discrete time risk process modelled by the skip-free random walk and we derive the results connected to the ruin probability, such as crossing the fixed level, for this kind of process. We use the method relying on the…