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Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-03 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

Brownian circuits perform computations using stochastic transitions driven by thermal fluctuations. While the energetic costs of such fluctuation-driven computation have been extensively studied within stochastic thermodynamics, much less…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-02-19 Kota Okajima , Koji Hukushima

This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-06-27 Stefan Tappe , Thorsten Schmidt

Stochastic processes with temporal delay play an important role in science and engineering whenever finite speeds of signal transmission and processing occur. However, an exact mathematical analysis of their dynamics and thermodynamics is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-03-02 Viktor Holubec , Artem Ryabov , Sarah A. M. Loos , Klaus Kroy

The paper deals with the ruin problem of an insurance company investing its capital reserve in a risky asset with the price dynamics given by a conditional geometric Brownian motion whose parameters depend on a Markov process describing a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Viktor Antipov , Yuri Kabanov

We study a financial market where the risky asset is modelled by a geometric It\^o-L\'{e}vy process, with a singular drift term. This can for example model a situation where the asset price is partially controlled by a company which…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-24 Nacira Agram , Bernt Øksendal

There has been intensive research regarding machine learning models for predicting bankruptcy in recent years. However, the lack of interpretability limits their growth and practical implementation. This study proposes a data-driven…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-03 Wei Li , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Stefan Lessmann

The hierarchical nature of corporate information processing is a topic of great interest in economic and management literature. Firms are characterised by a need to make complex decisions, often aggregating partial and uncertain…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Cameron Gordon

A bridge in a graph is an edge whose removal disconnects the graph and increases the number of connected components. We calculate the fraction of bridges in a wide range of real-world networks and their randomized counterparts. We find that…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-01-24 Ang-Kun Wu , Liang Tian , Yang-Yu Liu

In this article we explore the phenomena of nonequilibrium stochastic process starting from the phenomenological Brownian motion. The essential points are described in terms of Einstein's theory of Brownian motion and then the theory…

Physics Education · Physics 2007-05-23 Deb Shankar Ray

Simulating the conditioned dynamics of diffusion processes, given their initial and terminal states, is an important but challenging problem in the sciences. The difficulty is particularly pronounced for rare events, for which the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-23 Samuel Howard , Nikolas Nüsken , Jakiw Pidstrigach

We consider structural credit modeling in the important special case where the log-leverage ratio of the firm is a time-changed Brownian motion (TCBM) with the time-change taken to be an independent increasing process. Following the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-02-14 T. R. Hurd , Zhuowei Zhou

The time of the first occurrence of a threshold crossing event in a stochastic process, known as the first passage time, is of interest in many areas of sciences and engineering. Conventionally, there is an implicit assumption that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-24 Aanjaneya Kumar , Aniket Zodage , M. S. Santhanam

Let $(W_1(s), W_2(t)), s,t\ge 0$ be a bivariate Brownian motion with standard Brownian motion marginals and constant correlation $\rho \in (-1,1).$ Parisian ruin is defined as a classical ruin that happens over an extended period of time,…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Konrad Krystecki

We study the asymptotic behavior of ruin probabilities, as the initial reserve goes to infinity, for a reserve process model where claims arrive according to a renewal process, while between the claim times the process has the dynamics of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-24 Ying He , Konstantin Borovkov

In this paper, we study a risk process modeled by a Brownian motion with drift (the diffusion approximation model). The insurance entity can purchase reinsurance to lower its risk and receive cash injections at discrete times to avoid ruin.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-12-20 Shangzhen Luo , Michael Taksar

Brownian escape is key to a wealth of physico-chemical processes, including polymer folding, and information storage. The frequency of thermally activated energy barrier crossings is assumed to generally decrease exponentially with…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2020-06-19 Marie Chupeau , Jannes Gladrow , Alexei Chepelianskii , Ulrich F. Keyser , Emmanuel Trizac

In an earlier paper, a randomized load balancing model was studied in a heavy traffic asymptotic regime where the load balancing stream is thin compared to the total arrival stream. It was shown that the limit is given by a system of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Rami Atar , Tomoyuki Ichiba

We present a theory of homogeneous volatility bridge estimators for log-price stochastic processes. The main tool of our theory is the parsimonious encoding of the information contained in the open, high and low prices of incomplete bridge,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-26 Alexander Saichev , Didier Sornette , Vladimir Filimonov , Fulvio Corsi

Finding the first time a fluctuating quantity reaches a given boundary is a deceptively simple-looking problem of vast practical importance in physics, biology, chemistry, neuroscience, economics and industry. Problems in which the bound to…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-05 Thibaud Taillefumier , Marcelo O. Magnasco
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