Related papers: Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact traci…
We consider a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on random trees and on the configuration model. On a rooted tree, where initially all individuals are susceptible apart from the root which is…
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…
We consider a very general stochastic model for an SIR epidemic on a network which allows an individual's infectious period, and the time it takes to contact each of its neighbours after becoming infected, to be correlated. We write down…
The stacked contact process is a stochastic model for the spread of an infection within a population of hosts located on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Regardless of whether they are healthy or infected, hosts give birth and die at…
With the prevalence of COVID-19, the modeling of epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, in particular the self-protection and migration, which have a…
In this paper, we consider a discrete-time stochastic SIR model, where the transmission rate and the true number of infectious individuals are random and unobservable. An advantage of this model is that it permits us to account for random…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection.…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
In this paper, we present a discrete-time networked SEIR model using population flow, its derivation, and assumptions under which this model is well defined. We identify properties of the system's equilibria, namely the healthy states. We…
In this paper, we are concerned with stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed epidemics on complete graphs with vertex-dependent transition rates. Large and moderate deviations of empirical density fields of our models are given.…
We have derived the governing equations for an SIR model with delay terms in both the infectivity and recovery of the disease. The equations are derived by modelling the dynamics as a continuous time random walk, where individuals move…