Related papers: Stochastic epidemic models featuring contact traci…
We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed by individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local…
This work is concerned with epidemiological models defined on networks, which highlight the prominent role of the social contact network of a given population in the spread of infectious diseases. In particular, we address the modelling and…
This paper is devoted to the study of a stochastic epidemiological model which is a variant of the SIR model to which we add an extra factor in the transition rate from susceptible to infected accounting for the inflow of infection due to…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
The spread of an epidemic process is considered in the context of a spatial SIR stochastic model that includes a parameter $0\le p\le 1$ that assigns weights $p$ and $1- p$ to global and local infective contacts respectively. The model was…
In this paper we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR type model defined by Tuckwell and Williams. The SIR model by Tuckwell and Williams assumes a homogeneous population, a fixed infectious period, and a strict transition from…
Case isolation, that is, detection and isolation of infected individuals in order to prevent spread, is a strategy to curb infectious disease epidemics. Here, we study the efficiency of a case isolation strategy subject to time delays in…
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…
Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…
Contacts between people are the absolute drivers of contagious respiratory infections. For this reason, limiting and tracking contacts is a key strategy for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Digital contact tracing has been proposed as…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
In this paper we propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a set up under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
In this work, we study the epidemic SIR model on a system which takes into consideration face-to-face interaction networks. This approach has been used as prototype to describe people interactions in different kinds of social organizations…
In this study, a new and natural way of constructing a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model is proposed. This approach is natural in the sense that the disease transmission rate, $\beta$, is substituted with a generic,…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…
Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…