Related papers: Estimating HIV Epidemics for Sub-National Areas
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate…
Cross-sectional incidence estimation based on recency testing has become a widely used tool in HIV research. Recently, this method has gained prominence in HIV prevention trials to estimate the "placebo" incidence that participants might…
Identifiability is the property in mathematical modelling that determines if model parameters can be uniquely estimated from data. For infectious disease models, failure to ensure identifiability can lead to misleading parameter estimates…
In this article, we consider an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with four classes of individuals. We have discussed about basic properties of the system and found the basic reproduction number $R_0$ of the system. The stability analysis of the…
Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Many models in mathematical epidemiology are developed with the aim to provide a framework for parameter estimation and then prediction. It is well-known that parameters are not always uniquely identifiable. In this paper we consider…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
To combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic effectively, targeted interventions among certain key populations play a critical role. Examples of such key populations include sex workers, people who inject drugs, and men who have sex with men. While…
Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed…
Epidemiological models are best suitable to model an epidemic if the spread pattern is stationary. To deal with non-stationary patterns and multiple waves of an epidemic, we develop a hybrid model encompassing epidemic modeling, particle…
Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of…
Mixture models are a fundamental tool in applied statistics and machine learning for treating data taken from multiple subpopulations. The current practice for estimating the parameters of such models relies on local search heuristics…
National statistical agencies are regularly required to produce estimates about various subpopulations, formed by demographic and/or geographic classifications, based on a limited number of samples. Traditional direct estimates computed…
This paper introduces a novel hybrid model combining Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to simulate infectious disease dynamics across geographic regions. By leveraging the spatial detail of…
Network sampling is used around the world for surveys of vulnerable, hard-to-reach populations including people at risk for HIV, opioid misuse, and emerging epidemics. The sampling methods include tracing social links to add new people to…
Most epidemic models are spatially aggregate and the index which is most used for planning and policy numbers, the r number, typically refers to a single system of interest. Even if r numbers are calculated for each of adjacent areas,…
A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…
We revisit the SICA (Susceptible-Infectious-Chronic-AIDS) mathematical model for transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with varying population size in a homogeneously mixing population. We consider SICA models…